Air cargo market conditions becoming increasingly localised
Air cargo market conditions are becoming increasingly localised as demand surges from certain origins and verticals while it eases from others, according to freight forwarder CH Robinson.
The US company said that traditionally, demand cycles are broad-based as companies move goods for retail inventory replenishment, seasonal product launches, or post-disruption recoveries.
However, the current dynamic is more concentrated around a "relatively narrow set of products, manufacturers, and export markets".
CH Robinson explained that equipment tied to next-generation AI server platforms is fuelling airfreight demand from Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and Vietnam into the US.
As these shipments are high-value, time-sensitive, and tied to deployment schedules, airfreight is expected to remain a preferred option for some shipments, even where ocean capacity is available.
The surging AI demand is also putting pressure on capacity for other types of goods moving from, or through, these locations.
"Shippers outside of the AI server sector may feel the effects if their freight moves through the same origin airports, uses the same carrier capacity, or ships during the same periods as AI-related cargo," CH Robinson said.
However, other markets, such as Asia-Europe, are seeing demand levels ease.
"In both Shanghai and Hong Kong, carriers continue to compete for available volumes [to Europe] as demand eases and capacity comfortably meets current needs. Rates have continued to soften, and neither market is showing significant peak-season pressure.
"Across Southeast Asia, export demand [to Europe] remains stable but has moderated compared with earlier expectations. Capacity is sufficient across most origins, resulting in a favourable pricing environment and improved booking flexibility."
Many are suggesting the easing of demand on the Asia-Europe trade is linked to new European Union rules for e-commerce, while it is also the quieter summer period.
Meanwhile, capacity is "generally available" on the transatlantic market and import demand into Oceania "remains stronger than would typically be expected".
South America remains supported by e-commerce, perishables exports, and recovering demand in several markets.
Explaining why the localisation of airfreight trends matters to shippers, the forwarder explained that the overall picture may not reflect conditions at individual airports or on certain origins.
"For shippers, the distinction matters because local conditions can be harder to separate from regional market averages," CH Robinson said.
"Asia may appear balanced overall while individual origins experience tighter capacity, firmer pricing, or longer booking lead times.
"As demand becomes more concentrated, origin-level conditions may matter more than regional averages when planning airfreight.
"Even modest increases in technology-related exports can influence conditions at individual airports and within specific carrier networks, creating sharper effects than broader economic growth would normally produce.
"Seasonal typhoon activity across Asia could add further volatility if weather-related disruptions coincide with periods of concentrated demand."
The forwarder said that to combat the market conditions, shippers should separate time-sensitive shipments from freight with more flexible delivery requirements; watch a market's cargo mix, not just capacity; take advantage of competitive Asia-Europe rates; plan earlier for constrained lanes; and build flexibility into routing decisions where possible.
