Congestion and ship delays take 2.3m teu capacity off the market
Container shipping's deteriorating schedule reliability has effectively taken 2.3m teu of vessel capacity out of the market.
According to Sea-Intelligence's latest Global Liner Performance data, schedule reliability fell to 56.4% in July, its lowest level since February 2025 and the weakest performance since the current alliance structure was introduced.
The average delay for vessels arriving late extended to more than six days - excluding the immediate aftermath of the Red Sea crisis in January 2024, delays of this length have only occurred during the worst of the pandemic disruption.
According to the analyst, all this means 6.6% of the global container fleet is unavailable to the market, equivalent to around 2.3m teu, the capacity of the world's sixth-largest carrier, Sea-Intelligence said.
It noted that pre-pandemic, vessel delays typically absorbed about 2.2% of global capacity, so the current figure represents more than four percentage points above the structural baseline.
The immediate cause is largely seasonal, a succession of typhoons disrupting major Asian ports. And Sea-Intelligence estimates that, based on the experience of the pandemic and Red Sea crisis, it could take between 4.5 and six months to bring congestion back to the low point recorded in June 2025. Returning to end-2025 levels could take two to 3.5 months.
And consultancy Braemar suggested the current congestion issue was largely localised, and not global.
It noted that Shanghai and Ningbo were under pressure, with Santos another hotspot, but northern European gateways were generally seeing vessel waiting times measured in hours, or a few days, rather than pandemic-style queues.
Further, Braemar noted that congestion did not automatically equal lost capacity, as cargo could be shifted to another sailing, service, or carrier, particularly across the six major east-west trades, which together deploy around 1,378 vessels, with 15.7m teu of capacity.
For now, it said, the evidence pointed to pockets of congestion, rather than a global capacity squeeze.
But as newbuilds from the growing orderbook enter service, Braemar warned, the relationship between ship size and port infrastructure could become increasingly important.
The global container fleet represents roughly 1,500 km of vessel length, while the orderbook adds 419 km - almost 28% of the existing fleet length, as much of the new capacity is on larger ships. Braemar warned that the industry was, therefore, adding not only capacity but vessel length, increasing demand for berths, cranes, and yard capacity.
Sea Intelligence summarised: "Normalisation of the Red Sea will create a sharp drop in demand, when distance is taken into account. A gigantic orderbook is about to be delivered as well. The numbers essentially show that this does not add up.
"Not that the market might crash, but we will get a downturn, even as the carriers will attempt to stem the tide.
"At the top of every market cycle, we always hear arguments from carriers as to why the orderbook is not a problem. How they have become more disciplined, such that they will not allow rates to go below cost. How - this is the new pitch - port congestion will be permanent. How 'this time is different'. Yet, in every previous cycle, for the past decades, it was never different.
"Of course, this time might be different indeed. But when we look at the numbers, we get a distinct feeling of déjà vu," the analyst concluded.
