Full planes and fond farewells: air cargo does Miami
The weather was dreadful, the blueberries were under suspicion, and there were people dressed as rats outside the convention centre. Inside, however, air cargo was in a remarkably good mood.
At TIACA's Air Cargo Forum in Miami this week, the airlines had turned up in force, people wanted to do business, and anyone with a freighter on the transpacific had particular reason to enjoy themselves. (Although there may be less enjoyment from anyone trying to book space on it.)
One word that was heard surprisingly little was "peak". The conversations were about strong demand from the AI sector continuing well beyond the point at which the industry traditionally takes down the decorations and starts worrying again. Various forecasts put next year's demand growth at 5% or more; expectations for capacity growth were more mixed. But, having covered this industry for over a decade, I've never heard so many airlines crying-out for freighter capacity, normally a risky business. Conversions have shot up in price; and the delivery dates stretching out over the next several years may perhaps come too late for this current rush.
Adding to the uncertainty were rumours in Miami that Boeing might not make use of its FAA exemption to keep delivering the current 777 freighter beyond 2027. Unconfirmed, but hardly comforting for anyone hoping the aircraft shortage might resolve itself.
The broader concern in Miami was capacity: where to find it; how to secure it; and how long the squeeze might last.
Even ecommerce, whose demise has been so eagerly discussed, was still taking up space. Down on some lanes, yes. Out of the picture, certainly not. The parcels have declined to take the hint.
For shippers, a prolonged squeeze makes the relationship with their forwarders rather more consequential. Their message in Miami was straightforward: help us when things go wrong, and we will remember when it is time to award the next contract.
One shipper described rewarding a forwarder that had worked to protect agreed rates during a capacity crunch, rather than simply joining the queue with a surcharge. Others wanted practical alternatives when disruption struck. Loyalty still has commercial value, even if it is difficult to put in a procurement spreadsheet.
There was less enthusiasm for 'yet another' dashboard. A beautifully displayed problem remains a problem, although perhaps it is reassuring to know precisely which shade of amber your shipment has become.
Forwarders, meanwhile, had their own disappointments. One said he had emerged from a string of airline meetings finding the offerings distinctly "meh". Little innovation; not much to get excited about.
With space in short supply, perhaps an airline can get away with a sales pitch that largely amounts solely to 'having some'. But a market in which customers need you is also a useful opportunity to give them a reason to stay when they don't.
Outside the venue, another industry relationship was receiving rather more theatrical scrutiny.
Union protesters dressed as rats were highlighting safety allegations against Alliance Ground International. Inside, AGI occupied a large stand at the main entrance to the exhibition hall. An awkward arrangement for anyone hoping visitors would encounter only the approved brand messaging.
Elsewhere, the mood was more affectionate, if occasionally tearful. Air cargo was saying goodbye to several familiar faces, and TIACA outgoing DG Glyn Hughes appeared determined to provide enough emotion for the entire departing cohort.
TIACA's board had given him a send-off the night before the event started; a public 'roast' supplied further opportunities for him to reach for a tissue. Having spent years making sure there were no incriminating photographs of him, he had apparently failed to anticipate AI. A lifetime of photographic discipline, undone by a prompt.
With Mammen Tharakan taking over as DG, and Mr Hughes continuing part-time until January, the latter plans to spend some time 'doing life', before deciding what comes next. There are, unsurprisingly, plenty of invitations. The challenge may be persuading an industry accustomed to his availability that retirement is not simply a more flexible booking system.
With new chair Roos Bakker too, a new era at TIACA is taking shape; younger, driven, and motivated. It'll be great to watch to see how it thrives. Those problems stalking TIACA in the past, largely financial, seem to be now in the rear-view mirror. Long may that last.
And there were retirements elsewhere. A United Cargo party to say goodbye to cargo chief Jan Krems added to the sense of a generation handing over.
The US Airforwarders Association has also changed its guard. After 21 years of Brandon Fried, Steve Smith, previously chief executive of Airlink, has taken over. Affable and seemingly well suited to the job, he looks a good choice for a role requiring relationships, persistence, and the ability to both listen and explain.
Encouragingly, the farewells were accompanied by some arrivals. More than 100 students attended TIACA's event, with a raffle among the proceedings. The industry spends a good deal of time discussing the next generation; it was nice to see them in the room.
And there were airlines. Plenty of them.
At the previous Miami event, finding a carrier in the exhibition hall was a surprisingly tough ask. This time, the Americas were particularly well represented in the hall, and a record 100 airlines were represented among the delegates, according to the organisers. Cathay took the crown for best stand - centrally located, with the best coffee (and the worst queues) and also serving carajillos - espresso fortified with liqueur, very efficiently combining the two principal fuels of any air cargo event.
Attendance was put at around 3,000, although the hall did not always feel that busy. There were fewer stands than last time, but the mix felt better. The morning-only conference programme also worked well, leaving afternoons free for meetings.
Forwarders, as ever, were largely in those meetings, making them both reassuringly busy and extremely difficult to find.
For all the competition between air cargo events, there remains a pleasure in going to a key global one, and seeing people who, over the years, have become actual friends. New faces noted how welcoming everyone was, how readily people made introductions and helped them connect. It's a considerable part of this industry's appeal. People may be ferocious over a rate negotiation, but they will still introduce you to someone useful afterwards.
Miami itself - very much dressed for Halloween - was facing its own battles, with the weather. Horizontal rain and lashings of wind threatened the yoga, pickleball, and golf events - but, true to the industry, the disruption did not stop play. The weather also seemed to herald a metaphorical view ahead of next week's US midterm elections. There were plenty of gloomy predictions about what may happen in the country next week - yet another possiiblity of a 'black swan' that people now expect to see more often than white swans.
But inside the hall, people were motivated. There was freight to move, business to win, and a reasonable expectation that demand would keep them occupied well beyond the usual seasonal rush. The question was, how to carry it all.
And, it being Miami, there was also extensive discussion of perishables throughout the hall, including one earnestly confidential briefing on the alleged shortcomings of Peruvian blueberries.
I shall protect my source. Some relationships are too important to jeopardise over soft fruit.
