Expect cheaper space, but not cheaper shipping, warns Dimerco
Artificial intelligence and semiconductor exports are reshaping Asia-Pacific freight markets, booming technology shipments offsetting weaker consumer demand as global supply chains enter the traditional peak season.
According to Dimerco Express's latest Asia-Pacific market report, the global manufacturing outlook remains positive, despite signs of slower growth.
The Global Manufacturing PMI stood at 52.2 in June, marking an eleventh consecutive month of expansion, although growth eased from May's 50-month high of 52.7.
However, the divergence between technology and consumer demand is becoming increasingly pronounced across both air and ocean freight markets.
Dimerco Express noted that Taiwan continued to see robust export demand for AI servers, semiconductors, and other hi-tech products, keeping air freight capacity tight on major US routes, with South Korea experiencing a similar trend, with AI and semiconductor cargo replacing e-commerce as the primary driver of capacity on Asia-US lanes.
By contrast, consumer-focused ecommerce volumes have weakened significantly, particularly into Europe, following the EU's removal of its de minimis exemption for low-value imports on 1 July.
"What we're seeing is a market split in two," said Kathy Liu, VP of global sales and marketing at Dimerco Express Group. "AI demand out of Taiwan just keeps climbing, while the ecommerce base that carried Europe is gone with the de minimis change.
The shift has prompted airlines to reduce freighter capacity into Europe, pushing air freight rates lower across the continent during what is traditionally the region's seasonal lull.
Meanwhile, on the ocean freight side, the report explained that the surge in front-loaded shipments ahead of US tariff deadlines had peaked, with transpacific freight rates already easing from July highs, despite continued seasonal retail replenishment keeping vessel space tight.
However, lower freight rates are not translating into cheaper shipping overall ,according to the forwarder.
"The front-loading wave has passed its peak; transpacific rates are coming off their highs and Europe looks set to follow. But the cost floor isn't moving - fuel and canal surcharges won't fall with demand, so expect cheaper space, not cheaper shipping," said Ted Chen, Dimerco's director of ocean freight, global sales and marketing.
At the same time, the uncertainty surrounding US trade policy is expected to keep landed costs volatile, added Dimerco, warning that proposed Section 301 replacement duties covering more than 60 trading partners, including Vietnam, Thailand, and India, could reset sourcing costs.
Across Asia-Pacific, the report highlighted contrasting market conditions. Peak season is tightening ocean capacity to Europe and North America from South-east Asia, while intra-Asia services remain relatively stable. Thailand and Malaysia continue to experience tight air freight capacity, Singapore is facing European backlogs, and Australia is seeing softer capacity and stabilising rates.
In China, weakening ecommerce demand is weighing on transpacific air volumes, and ocean carriers are reducing rates as export demand softens. However, Dimerco underscored that weather-related delays were preventing sharper price declines.
Looking ahead, Dimerco advised shippers to secure capacity early on high-demand lanes, particularly from Taiwan, South Korea, and South-east Asia, while considering China-Europe rail services as an alternative where appropriate. The company also recommended building additional buffer time into supply chains as weather disruption, geopolitical risks, and fuel price volatility continued to challenge global freight markets during the remainder of the peak season.
