
Late peak demand sees container spot rates to the US surge
Container spot freight rates on the transpacific and Asia-Europe trades completely diverged this week, with a late peak season demand surge prompting freight prices to both east and west US coasts to spike.
This week's World Container Index (WCI) from Drewry saw its Shanghai-New York leg rise 3% week on week, to end at $9,587 per 40ft, almost triple this time last year's $3,677.
Meanwhile, the Shanghai-Los Angeles route was up 5% on the previous week, to finish at $7,185 per 40ft.
Part of the upward momentum was caused by a new round of general rate increases (GRIs) on 1 September, which partially stuck and, according to US west coast forwarder Freight Right, led to $300-$500 price increases this week.
The increases were also supported by strict capacity management by carriers and strong demand as the geographical limit of the peak season nears - the ex-Asia shipping window to get goods on US shelves for the holiday shopping season closes at the end of the September.
"Ocean carriers have successfully managed vessel supply by implementing strategically targeted blank sailings, modifying vessel rotations, and pulling capacity from select lanes to maintain pricing power," Freight Right said.
"Consumer and commercial demand remained strong, with volumes rising 9% week on week to the US west coast and 3% to the east coast," it added.
According to Drewry's Container Capacity Insight, a further six blanked sailings have been announced on the transpacific for next week, twice as many as this week, and led the analyst to conclude that transpac freight rates would at least remain stable next week.
However, it was a completely different picture on the Asia-Europe trades, spot rates continuing the descent they have been on since mid-July. This week's Shanghai-Rotterdam dropped 5%, to $4,092 per 40ft, while the decline was even steeper on the Shanghai-Genoa leg, which fell 10%, to $4,368 per 40ft.
A leading European freight forwarder told The Loadstar today that September rate quotes were already below this level, with little prospect of that reversing over the next month.
"Demand levels have dropped off, there are no issues with bookings or allocations, and rates would decline quicker if wasn't for port congestion or blank sailings," he said.
According to Linerlytica, Gemini partners Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are leading the discounting, "offering rates of $3,500-$3,800 per 40ft for vessel departures in the first two weeks of September, compared with the $3,900-$4,400 offered by their rivals".
However, even lower Asia-North Europe rates are available on the market - one unsolicited offer received by The Loadstar from a Chinese forwarder quoted a spot rate for the rest of the month of $2,799 per 40ft for Chinese ports to Felixstowe and Southampton, indicating that some forwarders have excess allocations they are willing to sell on.
And next week should see more of the same, said Drewry - according to its Container Capacity Insight, the number of blanked sailings is set to drop from four this week to just one next week, injecting more capacity into the market.
"With cargo demand softening, Drewry expects spot rates to experience a modest decline next week," it said.
There are also initial indications that the strong transatlantic market is also nearing an end, despite the fact that the WCI's Rotterdam-New York leg inched up 1% this week, to end at $3,052 per 40ft, and in recent days there have been a number of carriers attempting rate hikes on the route.
MSC announced this week it would apply a peak season surcharge (PSS) on West Mediterranean-North America shipments of $600 per 40ft from 1 October, while CMA CGM announced in late August a $2,000 per 40ft PSS on North Europe-US shipments from 20 September.
However, other carriers have yet to follow suit, and one transatlantic forward told The Loadstar the market was increasingly competitive in terms of pricing.
"I know a couple of carriers have tried for rate hikes, so we're avoiding them for the time being.
"There are options out there with no rate increases and space available, and we even had a slight decrease from one of our carriers," he noted.