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Scale or specialisation? DSV and K+N chart different paths to forwarding success

The world's two largest freight forwarders appear to be pursuing increasingly different paths to growth. Acquisitive DSV has placed multi-billion-dollar bets on scale, and is now integrating DB Schenker into what it hopes will become an unrivalled global forwarding network. Kuehne+Nagel, meanwhile, favours targeted acquisitions that strengthen specific capabilities, with its results focused on operational efficiency, artificial intelligence, and higher-margin customers rather than sheer size. The latest half-year results suggest both strategies have merit. Air freight was strong for both, benefiting from demand for AI infrastructure and technology shipments, while ocean freight remained resilient, despite continuing market uncertainty. At DSV, the story is still one of integration. Air & Sea revenue rose 32% in the first half, as Schenker contributed additional volumes, while management said integration was now beginning to translate into improved profitability. The group continues to target Dkr9bn of annual synergies from the acquisition by 2027. CEO Jens Lund told analysts the benefits were only beginning to emerge. He said: "All in all, on the Air & Sea side, I think we are on the right track and the division is going to deliver continued progress also in the coming quarters, because we are very advanced on integration." First-half revenue in air was up 36%, with gross profit rising 24% on volumes up 28%. In Sea, revenue went up 21.6%, while gross profit rose 4.9%, on a volume rise of 24%. Mr Lund acknowledged ocean volumes had been weaker than expected, but said initiatives were under way to improve growth. Road Logistics continued to present operational challenges, he said, despite management changes and higher earnings following the Schenker acquisition. By contrast, K+N's results focused less on scale than on extracting more value from existing business. The Swiss forwarder's Air Logistics division produced one of its strongest quarters in recent years, with EBIT climbing 35%, to Sfr154m on revenues up 20%, while for the first half, air revenue was up 4.2%, with EBIT up 15%. Management attributed the improvement to market share gains and a stronger customer mix, particularly in technology. CEO Stefan Paul said simply: "Air Logistics delivered an excellent quarter, increasing profit by 35%." K+N highlighted specific growth opportunities, including the movement of cloud infrastructure equipment for Google between Asia and the US, illustrating how AI investment was becoming a significant driver of premium air cargo demand. In ocean freight, DSV highlighted the benefits of procurement scale and Schenker synergies, while K+N focused on execution. Its Sea Logistics division lifted its conversion ratio to 29%, despite subdued European export demand, helped by tighter cost control and market share gains on the Asia-Europe and transpacific trades. The difference extended well beyond air and sea: K+N repeatedly returned to themes of productivity, efficiency, and AI deployment, saying it was accelerating the roll-out of AI agents to optimise operational processes. Contract Logistics also benefited from new technology customers, with more than 300,000 sq metres of additional warehouse capacity dedicated to cloud infrastructure providers. DSV's AI ambitions are no less significant, but are more aimed at making an ever-larger global network more productive. Technology was discussed as an enabler of integration, standardisation, and scale. While DSV has been the poster boy for M&A in the sector, K+N has continued to acquire businesses, but largely through smaller, targeted deals. Loadstar Premium's exclusive report that K+N is considering a future separation of Apex would only reinforce that focus on portfolio optimisation rather than transformational expansion. The financial results suggest both strategies are delivering, albeit in different ways. DSV generated first-half revenue of Dkr147.1bn ($22.7bn) and EBIT before special items of Dkr11.1bn ($1.7bn), equating to an operating margin of 7.5%. K+N reported Sfr12.4bn ($15.4bn) in net turnover and recurring EBIT of Sfr726m ($900m), representing a margin of 5.9%. DSV's larger scale following the Schenker acquisition has enabled it to generate almost twice as much operating profit as its Swiss rival, while also producing a higher return on revenue. Whether that advantage proves sustainable, or whether K+N's more targeted, efficiency-led approach ultimately delivers better long-term returns may become one of the defining strategic questions for the forwarding industry.

Air freight contracts a challenge for shippers and forwarders in a tightening market

Annual air freight contracts are becoming increasingly difficult to sustain as market conditions shift decisively in favour of airlines and freight forwarders, according to Xeneta. During a webinar, Adi Šunj, Xeneta's lead customer success manager, said the tightening market and a growing reliance on spot purchasing were forcing both forwarders and shippers to rethink how they approached long-term pricing agreements. "We typically define 80% as the shifting point between a buyer's market and a seller's market," said Mr Šunj, referring to the company's dynamic load factor metric, measuring aircraft capacity utilisation. As capacity tightens, airlines gain greater pricing power, while shippers lose leverage in negotiations, he explained. Companies that negotiated competitive annual contracts when market conditions were softer may now find those agreements increasingly difficult to maintain if they sit below prevailing market rates, he added. "Understanding that your service may change, that you may not get the same service as you had in the past - given the increase in the delta between your position and the market high - I think is key," he said. This challenge for shippers is compounded by the growing proportion of cargo moving on the spot market outside contracts. Mr Šunj said Xeneta's airline spot share data showed when forwarders were relying more heavily on ad hoc purchases rather than longer-term block space agreements. "We've seen over time that when the airline spot share rises above 40% to 50%, or more, then it becomes not just significant pressure for the forwarder to move and buy their cargo, but also to align their contracts with their customers," he explained. He added that, when 70%-80% of cargo is moving under spot pricing, forwarders faced increasing uncertainty over future procurement costs, making fixed-price agreements with customers significantly harder to support. "It creates pressure for both ends - the freight forwarder ensuring their capacity and price in the market, and also the shipper that needs to move cargo." Xeneta advised that the changing market dynamics meant shippers may need to reconsider how aggressively they negotiate annual contracts. Customer success manager Seth DeVary warned: "If they're positioned at the market low, it's significantly less likely that that long-term contract is going to be able to get honoured." Rather than focusing solely on achieving the lowest possible rate, Xeneta argues, shippers should understand where their pricing sits relative to the wider market, to balance cost against service reliability. And for forwarders, greater transparency around market conditions also helps explain rising costs to customers during periods of disruption. "It becomes very difficult a lot of times to manage internally what's happening in the market," said Mr DeVary. "With data, you can both look at the same information at the same time and ensure the stories are in line, the facts are in line, and that it's easier to understand and find the best alternative and solution," he concluded.

A new era for shippers, with blanked sailings now a fact of life

Container shipping has entered a new era of structurally constrained capacity, as carriers routinely withdraw 10% to 14% of scheduled space through blanked sailings, according to new analysis from Sea-Intelligence. The consultancy's review of the first half of 2026 across the four main east-west trades - Asia-North Europe, Asia-Mediterranean, Asia-US east coast and Asia-US west coast - found that, while the extreme disruption of the pandemic years had faded, blanked sailings have become a permanent feature of network management, rather than an occasional response to weak demand. Compared with the first half of 2019, carriers are increasingly relying on cancelling sailings to balance supply and demand, prompting the analyst to conclude that supply chain planners need to "recalibrate allocation and inventory strategies" around a lower baseline of available capacity. On the Asia-USEC route, blanked capacity has shot up, from 273,725 teu in the first half of 2019 to 863,396 teu in the first half of this year. Asia-Mediterranean has seen withdrawn capacity more than double, from 224,143 teu to 580,484 teu, while Asia-USWC and Asia-North Europe both recorded around 1m teu of blanked capacity in H1 26. And measured as a share of total scheduled capacity, Sea-Intelligence noted that the shift was equally pronounced. In H1 19, blanked sailings accounted for just 6%-8% of capacity across the four trades. Today, every route sees blanked voyages in double digits, with Asia-USEC the most constrained, at 14%, followed by Asia-USWC and Asia-North Europe at 11%, and Asia-Mediterranean at 10%. Sea-Intelligence argued that this represented a "fundamental change" in carrier behaviour, rather than temporary market adjustment. Perhaps most strikingly, the growth in withdrawn capacity has significantly outpaced fleet expansion. Between 2019 and 2026, scheduled capacity on the Asia-USEC trade increased 46%, but blanked capacity surged 215%; Asia-Mediterranean saw capacity grow 56%, compared to a 159% increase in withdrawn capacity; on Asia-USWC, capacity rose 16%, but blanked sailings increased 62%; and on Asia-North Europe, 20% capacity growth was against an 83% rise in withdrawn space. According to the analysis, this demonstrates that the delivery of new vessels has not translated into proportionately more cargo space for shippers, as carriers have increasingly offset fleet growth through tactical capacity withdrawals. However, while more capacity is being removed, the way carriers are doing it has become considerably more predictable. During the pandemic, blanked sailings fluctuated sharply from week to week, but Sea-Intelligence found there was less volatility across the four trades, suggesting carriers have adopted "a more disciplined and consistent" approach to capacity management. This created a market that was "restricted, but highly predictable", said the analyst, allowing shippers to plan with greater confidence provided they account for permanently less available space. It recommended supply chain planners assumed there would be structural capacity withdrawals of between 10% and 14%, depending on tradelane, and adjust their inventory policies accordingly. It also warned that shippers relying heavily on the Asia-USEC trade should consider alternative routings and larger safety stocks, given that lane's comparatively high level of withdrawn capacity. James Hookham, director of the Global Shippers Forum, told The Loadstar: "Blanked sailings are just one of the 'levers' shipping lines pull to manage capacity when they have more slots than boxes to fill them." "The effect is to reduce the number of bookable slots available to shippers at ports where the service would have called, and rates therefore typically rise - or at least don't fall as fast." Mr Hookham added that cancelled sailings were not "inherently problematic", provided carriers acted independently. "When decisions are taken in alliances of more than one carrier is the issue competition authorities need to be satisfied with," he added.