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FedEx 5.9% rate rise masks steeper hikes for ecommerce shippers

Once again FedEx was the first out of the starting blocks to unveil rate hikes for the coming year, and once again the integrator's increases average 5.9%, as they did in the past three years. And once again, the rates that FedEx will implement starting on 4 January, 2027 will be higher than the rate of inflation, which currently stands at 3.4%, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Further in the time-honoured tradition, the general rate increase (GRI) number veils an array of hikes well above those at 5.9%. Paul Yaussy, head of parcel contract intelligence at logistics data platform Loop, pointed out that five of the seven major services in FedEx's portfolio, are set for increases higher than 5.9%, ranging from 6.01% to 6.65%. The exceptions are the Standard Overnight offering, which goes up 5.16%, and the Express Saver product, which rises by a moderate 3.09%. First and foremost, it is the latter which brings down the average rate of increase, while most shippers stand to face rate hikes north of 5.9%. Mr Yaussy called the low increase in Express Saver rates a defensive move, likely to prevent a shift from deferred air volume to ground service, or in response to competing deferred offerings in the market like UPS's 3 Day Select service. Unlike last year, when rate increases on FedEx Ground for parcels between 11 and 20 lbs were steeper, this time lightweight parcels of 1-5 lbs are seeing the higher increases (6.49%), followed by parcels in the 5-10 lbs and 11-20 lbs brackets, a move that targets the bulk of ecommerce traffic, Mr Yaussy observed. As always, the prices customers end up paying are higher yet thanks to the range of surcharges that the integrators routinely employ. Many of them get an additional boost from fuel surcharges, Mr Yaussy pointed out. Surcharges for additional handling will rise 7-7.6%. Residents of rural areas will be hardest hit, facing a 9.09% increase in the extended delivery area surcharge, another indication that FedEx management is steering the business away from low-margin residential deliveries. The minimum charge for FedEx Ground shipments will go up 5.88-6.9%. Mr Yaussy warned that minimum charges apply regardless of negotiated discounts, adding that this affects a lot of lightweight shipments moving relatively short distances. "The minimum charge is the lowest amount a shipper can pay regardless of any negotiated discount. For lightweight, short-zone shipments it is not a floor you occasionally touch, it is the rate you actually pay on a meaningful share of your volume. Every point of minimum increase erases a point of discount on those packages, and no amount of base rate concession fixes it," he stated. He called the new GRI "another exercise in strategic pricing, where a familiar headline masks a far less familiar structure underneath", and where the real costs sit in the details. For shippers, this means that going by averages is not enough. They have to know their own shipping data in detail to establish how the various elements packed into the 5.9% GRI puzzle work out for them, he warned. For now, FedEx customers have other surcharges to contend with. As of Monday, 21 September, the integrator is levying demand surcharges on shipments to the US from Canada, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean, and increasing demand surcharges from various origins in Asia. At the same time, charges on US exports to Canada, Europe, Australia and New Zealand, Latin and America have also gone up. On its website the carrier cited stronger traffic volumes, high demand for capacity and increased operating costs as causes for demand surcharges, which are levied on a per-pound basis. According to ShipScience, US imports from China, Hong Kong and Macau as well as from Japan and South Korea are facing the largest increases.

Continued China-Europe ecommerce slump exposes shifting air cargo flows

Chinese low-value and ecommerce exports to the European Union fell 65% year-on-year in August, according to Trade and Transport Group managing director Frederic Horst, as the market continued to weaken following the EU's introduction of a €3-per-item fee. The August decline followed a 54% fall in July. Exports to the UK also fell, although at a slower rate, down 13% in August and 5% in July. Avean's latest China ecommerce data pointed to a similar deterioration, recording a 16% year-on-year decline in August - its steepest fall so far - driven primarily by a 40% drop in exports to Europe. The figures underline the rapidly shifting nature of air cargo flows discussed by senior freight forwarding and airline executives at an industry panel during this month's EC CBEC Ecommerce Forum in Liege. Stefan Krikken, head of global airfreight at DSV, said: "The last five years has been completely crazy with with Covid and ecommerce and wars and hyperscalers, and it just shows how how agile you need to be." He added that, despite ecommerce now slowing, demand could return. "I'm sure [ecommerce sellers] will get creative, and that volume will come back." The data suggests the contraction is currently particularly pronounced on China-Europe flows. By contrast, Aevean found that exports to other regions, including Asia Pacific, North and Latin America, the Middle East and South Asia, were flat or showed only modest declines. Africa was the exception, with exports up 71%, although from a comparatively small base. The US market is also showing a different trajectory. Trade and Transport Group data found that direct low-value shipments to the US have been expanding again since May. However, on a rolling 12-month basis they remain only 65% of their level before May 2025. The panel discussion highlighted how quickly geopolitical and regulatory changes can redirect cargo and capacity between markets. Henk Venema, EVP of global airfreight for DHL, described the frequency of disruption as having changed fundamentally, saying that supply-chain crises which once occurred roughly every seven years could now happen "every seven months or every seven weeks". For forwarders, that means gateway and capacity strategies are increasingly being built around optionality rather than fixed assumptions. Mr Krikken explained DSV now follows capacity and infrastructure, while also retaining the ability to move into smaller regional gateways when required. The panel's broader message was that ecommerce remains a major air cargo driver, but the industry cannot assume today's trade flows will remain tomorrow's. As Asok Kumar, CEO of Morrison Express, put it: "It's the same playbook, just with different circumstances being rolled out."

Canada looks to EU and UK to replace tariff-hit US shipments

The launch of a full-blown trade war between the US and Canada, coupled with recent transatlantic talks between Canada and the EU, as well as the UK, is beginning to fundamentally change the country's freight flows. The US 50% tariffs on Canadian goods and the targeted response on US imports has provoked Canadian importers to begin looking at sourcing goods that previously came from the US in Europe, Steffen Manz, founder and CEO of forwarder Speed Global Logistics, told The Loadstar. "When you look at the verticals, the immediate push is coming from industrial manufacturing, automotive components, and consumer packaged goods - essentially, any sector where the margins are razor-thin and recent 25% to 50% tariffs erase profitability. "We aren't seeing massive, overnight shifts in total container volumes yet, but rather trial batches. Shippers are testing the waters with a few teu, or less-than-container load (LCL) shipments, from the EU to evaluate transit times and landed costs. "You can't just flip a switch; you have to vet new suppliers, align technical specifications, and adjust to longer transit lead times. Moving from a two-day cross-border truckload to a 14-to-21-day ocean voyage means companies have to completely re-engineer their inventory carrying costs and warehouse capacity," explained Mr Manz. However, he had noted a growing sense of urgency, in part caused by the immediate disruption to US-Canada cross-border freight flows resulting from the new tariffs. "It's been highly disruptive, and messy," he said. "On the ground, we're seeing a lot of friction at the borders. Customs brokers are buried under complex paperwork trying to determine tariff exemptions, and we've seen cross-border freight volumes soften on certain lanes as companies pause shipments to see how the dust settles. "The dollar-for-dollar retaliation has created an atmosphere of tit-for-tat friction. For forwarders, it means asset utilisation for cross-border trucking is fluctuating wildly, and we are spending a lot more time consulting with panicked clients on compliance and tariff mitigation, rather than just moving freight," he added. At the same time, however, the considerable political overtures between Canada and the EU recently, as well as the formal entry of the UK into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans‑Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) on 1 September - under which the UK and Canada now trade - could create breathing space for Canadian importers searching for new sourcing options. "The trade agreements provide an excellent structural safety valve," Mr Manz said. "The formal entry of the UK into the CPTPP, alongside existing CETA benefits, creates a highly favourable regulatory corridor across the Atlantic. For Canadian importers, it makes British and European goods financially competitive with US alternatives, even when you factor-in ocean freight costs. "From a forwarder's perspective, it will inevitably shift the mode mix. We anticipate less cross-border over-the-road (OTR) trucking and an increase in inbound maritime volumes into the ports of Montreal, Saint John, and Halifax, alongside an uptick in transatlantic air freight for high-value, time-sensitive verticals," he said. Crucially, after the events of the two years since Donald Trump's second administration began, the probability of the US-Canada trading relationship returning to its status quo is fast disappearing. "The motivation to look to Europe is pure survival," Mr Manz said. "With cross-border trade becoming punitive and unpredictable, EU sourcing under CETA offers duty-free stability, and we absolutely expect this to accelerate through Q4 and into next year. "Supply chain managers hate volatility more than they hate high costs. Even if the US and Canada magically sat down tomorrow and patched things up, the psychological damage is done - supply chains have deep muscle memory. "Shippers realised they were dangerously over-exposed to a single trading partner. "B2B buyers are actively diversifying their supplier portfolios now as a risk-mitigation strategy, meaning the pivot to Europe isn't a temporary knee-jerk reaction - it's a structural realignment," he added.