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CH Robinson warns of Asia cargo capacity shortages

CH Robinson has warned its customers to expect capacity shortages on certain lanes out of Asia in the second half of September. The forwarder said that quarter-end shipments, technology-related cargo, and a pre-holiday export push could "narrow departure options during the second half of the month", particularly on the transpacific and Asia-Europe trade lanes. There will also be an export push ahead of the Mid-Autumn Festival at the end of the month and China's National Day holiday from 1-7 October. The company added that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to affect airspace availability and routing decisions. "Expect booking pressure to build during the middle of September and intensify ahead of the holiday period," CH Robinson said. "On affected Asia origins, the first indication of tightening may be earlier cutoffs and fewer workable flight options rather than an immediate market-wide rate increase." However, the company added that the tightening of capacity in September does not reflect a broad-based increase in general cargo demand, other than AI infrastructure. The biggest impact will be on services out of China, CH Robinson said, with market conditions outside of China depending on how airlines adjust freighter rotations or commercial allocations toward major China gateways. "Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Vietnam, and Thailand should therefore be treated as origin-specific watchpoints," the forwarder said. "Each may see quarter-end or technology-related demand, but the timing and degree will vary. Belly capacity, airline allocations, local cargo mix, and gateway performance will determine which origins tighten first." General cargo will be the first affected by a tightening of capacity, with later flights or less direct services a likely outcome. Rates are also likely to rise: "On affected Asia export lanes, spot rates could begin to firm from mid-September as preferred flights fill," the forwarder added. "The change is unlikely to be uniform. Rates may rise first on the most sought-after flights rather than across every departure on the route."

Air Canada Cargo appoints Americas senior director of sales

Air Canada Cargo has appointed Nicolas Saignat as senior director of cargo sales for its Americas region. Saignat will be based at the cargo company's Montréal headquarters and will lead commercial activities across the region, with a focus on "deepening customer relationships, supporting freight forwarders and shippers, and advancing Air Canada Cargo's growth across key markets in the Americas". According to his LinkedIn profile, Saignat has more than 20 years of experience in the air cargo market, having worked for Air France KLM Martinair Cargo, WestJet Cargo and CEVA Logistics. Most recently, he was vice president, airfreight product manager, North America at CEVA. Air Canada Cargo said that throughout his career, Saigant has led regional commercial teams, supported airfreight product development, strengthened strategic partnerships, and delivered growth in complex and highly competitive markets. "His experience will support Air Canada Cargo's continued focus on providing customers with market expertise and with reliable and responsive service across the region," the airline said. Matthieu Casey, managing director, commercial, Air Canada Cargo, added: "Nicolas's strong commercial background and deep understanding of the air cargo market will be important as we continue to strengthen our customer relationships and grow across the Americas. "His leadership will help us stay close to our customers' evolving needs and deliver the cargo solutions they rely on."

No expectations of an imminent EU ecommerce rebound

Global ecommerce air cargo growth has flattened this year following a surge in capacity and regulatory intervention, delegates at the EU CBEC ecommerce forum in Liege heard today. Speaking at the forum, CEO of Rotate Ryan Keyrouse said ecommerce volumes had grown 23% since 2024 but were now flat. Mr Keyrouse noted that political intervention has emerged as the biggest threat - something industry respondents had already identified as the leading risk two years ago in a Rotate survey. "Politically marketed policies. That definitely happened," he said, pointing to the recent de minimis measures introduced in Europe and the US. Rotate highlighted the impact of the EU's regulatory changes that became apparent in July, shorty after their introduction. That month witnessed 24% decline in ecommerce volumes, alongside a 28% fall in freighter capacity to Europe. Mr Keyrouse illustrated that this is the equivalent of around 5,000 freighter flights a year having disappeared from the market. He revelaed that these capacity reductions have been unevenly distributed, creating winners and losers among European gateways. EU ecommerce gateways such as Liège, Amsterdam and Budapest all suffered significant declines, with Budapest's capacity falling by almost 60% between June and August. "We didn't really see that capacity out of China be redistributed elsewhere," Mr Keyrouse commented. Instead, the reduction has largely come through lower utilisation and the parking of older, converted freighters, particularly less fuel-efficient aircraft. Rotate's latest sentiment survey, based on more than 100 industry responses, found most respondents did not expect European ecommerce volumes to rebound immediately after the summer. "The answer is not for another six months," Mr Keyrouse said. Others believe the market will settle into a permanent but stable decline, while only a minority expect an immediate recovery. Any displaced ecommerce demand is nevertheless expected to find new markets, with respondents identifying Latin America and the Middle East and Africa as the most likely areas for future growth, although Southeast Asia and non-EU European markets also featured. However, ecommerce is not the only major growth engine for air cargo. Technology and AI-related hardware have expanded rapidly, with cloud computing, computers and semiconductors driving demand. Outside China, technology-related goods now account for 68% of Asia-Pacific exports, according to Rotate, reflecting the acceleration of the "China plus one" manufacturing strategy. Overall, Rotate forecasts total air cargo demand will grow 3% over the next 12 months, broadly in line with projected capacity growth of 3.3%.