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Exports stranded as Adani Russia-embargo creates Indian air cargo chaos

India-Russia trade, which has been active despite the US sanctions on Moscow, now faces new supply chain hurdles, according to industry sources. The biggest barrier is that the eight Indian airports, including Mumbai's two, managed by Adani Group have temporarily suspended handling Russia-related shipments. The stoppage has already left some 150 tonnes of Indian exports for Russia - primarily pharmaceuticals, machinery, and spare parts - stranded over the past week. While there is no official word from Adani, industry watchers are viewing the abrupt cargo ban as an extended fallout of the sanctions, as it occurred a few weeks after US-based asset management group BlackRock agreed to funnel some $1bn in equity to Adani Airport Holdings. "Air freight to Russia through Adani airports is now at a standstill," one forwarder told The Loadstar. "We are unaware of the exact reason." Non-Adani Delhi Airport continues to handle Russia flights, including those by Russia's national carrier, Aeroflot, but these normally carry sizeable Russia-bound cargo transhipped via Mumbai, sources said. A Volga-Dnepr charter was reportedly rerouted to Delhi after being denied access to Navi Mumbai, while its other cargo there has been held for two weeks, according to one report. And India-Russia trade disruption is not limited to air freight: container carriers have also stopped accepting bookings from India to Russia's Novorossiysk port, a major hub in the Black Sea, over fears of escalating drone attacks on vessels, as well as other growing security risks in the region, sources told The Loadstar. MSC and CMA CGM have been among the top mainline carriers on India-Russia trades, with a slew of NVO-back regional operators, including Corten Shipping. According to sources, carriers are now limiting their services to St Petersburg. The disruption and export congestion is an added blow for Mumbai air freight stakeholders as the hub switch from the old Mumbai airport to Navi Mumbai (NMI) continues to generate controversy. Citing a lack of infrastructure readiness and anticipated operational bottlenecks, more freighter operators are backing off with their transition plans. Malta-based Challenge Group has joined Lufthansa Cargo in pausing operations out of India's main commercial hub, saying: "Following an assessment of the current operating conditions at NMI, we have determined that the present operational setup does not yet enable us to deliver our cargo services with the level of reliability and certainty we require. "Our teams are actively evaluating alternative options to maintain strong connectivity between India and our international network." Challenge was operating twice-weekly flights out of Mumbai, to Liege, Tel Aviv, the US, and South America, according to available data. As the Mumbai disruption escalated, IATA stepped in, raising questions about the "forceful" approach by Adani Group in implementing the hub transition. IATA said it had created a great deal of confusion among airlines, and the process should have been left to market forces. The association told India's Ministry of Civil Aviation that, while airlines remained fully supportive of the dual airport system, better preparedness was critical to the transition. Mumbai is India's second-busiest air cargo hub, so disruption, even at a limited scale, has the potential to hamper export/import trade flows just as the country's manufacturing prospects brighten. Vineet Malhotra, co-founder and director at Mumbai's Kale Logistics Solutions, said: "The priority now is to ensure that this transition is co-ordinated, data-driven, and seamless for all stakeholders."

Post-peak spot rates tumble as ocean carriers eye price increases

China's Golden Week holiday appears to have marked the end of the protracted transpacific peak season, as container freight spot rates out of Asia to the US declined this week. According to Drewry's World Container Index (WCI), the spot rate on its Shanghai-Los Angeles route declined 3% week on week, to finish at $7,624 per 40ft, while the Shanghai-New York leg was down 2%, to $10,220 per 40ft. US west coast forwarder Freight Right said the market had, basically, been static over the past week due to the holiday in China. Meanwhile, spot rates on the Asia-Europe routes fell for the 13th consecutive week as contracting season gets under way, potentially putting shippers and their forwarders in a stronger negotiating position than they have seen this year. "For European shippers, tender season is in full force, and falling short-term rates are a welcome development as they negotiate long-term contracts, because they also benchmark against the short-term market," said Peter Sand, Xeneta's chief analyst. "Demand has been very strong all year, not least into Europe, but it could not keep growing at double-digits indefinitely. "As demand eases from a very high level, the fight for capacity eases too, and even freight forwarders are now getting better deals from carriers in long-term contract negotiations," he added. According to this week's XSI by Xeneta, the Far East-North Europe spot rate fell 2.5% on the previous week, to end at $3,645 per 40ft, while the XSI's Far East-Mediterranean route was down 5.9% week on week, to end at $4,007 per 40ft. "Spot rates on the Far East to Europe trades have fallen heavily since the post-Hormuz crisis peak in July. The Mediterranean is taking the biggest hit, down 43% since 1 July, while North Europe is down 34%," explained Mr Sand. In comparison, the WCI's Shanghai-Rotterdam route fell 2%, to $3,337 per 40ft, while the Shanghai-Genoa leg was essentially flat, at $3,696 per 40ft. The next two-to-three weeks will likely determine the course of pricing for the remainder of the year, with carriers attempting to reverse the declines by seeking higher FAK rates in the second half of October. "However, the successful implementation of these increases remains uncertain - the faster-than-expected return to the Suez route remains the biggest threat to carrier efforts to support rates," Drewry noted. Mr Sand added: "The pace of the decline has eased a little, but rates are still elevated and the trend is still downward, so we are not at the floor yet." Speaking on an Asia-Europe webinar hosted by the Journal of Commerce yesterday, Drewry Supply Chain Advisors' head of advisory, Chantal McRoberts, agreed that early signs from shippers now running tenders were that rates could fall further. "We think they will soften, in terms of what we're seeing right now - shippers that have opened up competitive tenders are seeing a variety of different strategies. "We're seeing some better rates than this time last year last year," she added, but warned that price increases could come through surcharges rather than base rate levels. "It's the surcharges that are causing the biggest consternation - we're seeing inflated fuel prices appear; we're seeing some inflated pre-peak season surcharges coming in, so it's really important that shippers put up guardrails around contract rates. "There is scope to save some cost, but it will depend on the market, the risks, and the framework of whether it's the right time to go to bid, or whether it's better to try and extend. "And it's also whether the providers are also open to that, which is really important in terms of forwarders because they also have a role in setting the market expectation on rates as well," Ms McRoberts said.

AI drives global trade as well as air cargo

The rapid growth in demand for artificial intelligence (AI-related) goods that has consumed air cargo capacity out of Asia has also helped insulate global trade against tariffs and geopolitical issues, the latest DHL Globalisation Tracker has found. There has been strong demand for goods used to build AI infrastructure, such as semiconductors and data-transmission equipment, according to the report released by DHL and New York University's Stern School of Business. Trade in AI-enabling goods drove 42% of goods trade growth in 2025, and this share rose to 76% during the first quarter of 2026, according to WTO and OECD analysis, highlighted the Globalisation Tracker. "The biggest story in global trade right now is AI - not tariffs," said John Pearson, chief executive of DHL Express. "Every AI query ultimately depends on logistics. Chips, networking equipment and the many other goods behind this technology must be in the right place at the right time. "DHL connects the businesses and markets behind these complex supply chains. Whenever innovation creates new trade flows, our global network helps keep them moving." Overall, the report shows that global goods trade grew faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half-year in the past 15 years, apart from the exceptional Covid rebound. Among all regions, East Asia and the Pacific recorded the strongest trade growth. The value of its trade rose 24% in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. Europe followed with 12% and Sub-Saharan Africa with 11%. East Asia and the Pacific not only recorded the strongest growth, but also saw a larger share of its trade stay within the region. This share increased from 57% in 2025 to 60% in the first five months of 2026. Strong Asian supply chains serving the AI boom contributed to this increase, stressed the report. Air cargo capacity out of Southeast Asia is now dominated by AI and semiconductor air cargo shipments instead of e-commerce, recent analysis by Dimerco found. War and tariffs impact The AI boom may have outweighed geopolitical shocks, but the Middle East conflict and the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted supply chains and saw airlines pause cargo operations with the cancellation of flights to countries in the region - some of which are yet to be reinstated. But the effects on trade remained concentrated, according to the Globalisation Tracker. Economies dependent on the Strait were hit particularly hard. For example, the value of trade fell 37% in Saudi Arabia and 7% in the United Arab Emirates in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. Likewise, US tariffs reached their highest levels in decades, but their global impact was limited. One reason is that the US accounted for only 13% of world imports in recent years, with roughly half of those imports exempt from the tariff increases as of August. Another is that most countries refrained from broad retaliation. Many instead increased efforts to secure access to alternative markets through new trade agreements. Looking ahead, global goods trade is projected to expand by an average of 3.4% per year through 2029. That would be substantially faster than the 2.7% rate recorded over the previous decade, noted Globalisation Tracker. "The surprise is not only that global trade kept growing through new tariffs and the Iran war," said Prof. Steven A. Altman, director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern's Center for the Future of Management. "The outlook is now stronger than it was before either shock. This reminds us to look beyond the most visible disruptions and recognise the deeper reasons why trade remains so resilient. "The AI trade boom highlights the demand for goods and services that can only be provided efficiently when specialised producers work together across countries. "It also shows how companies continually adapt to keep trade moving through disruptions and policy shifts."