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Rush to get cargo out of China keeps transpac peak going, says Freightos

Transpacific container shipping rates remain high after the unusually early start to peak season, with tariff uncertainty and a rush to move cargo out of China helping sustain demand. Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, told The Loadstar Podcast that transpacific rates had risen by around $4,000 per 40ft since late May, reaching approximately $7,600 to the US west coast and $9,000 to the east coast. "That's early for peak season," Mr Levine said, noting that rates had begun climbing in late May and accelerated in early June. He attributed the initial increase partly to external factors following the outbreak of war, including higher bunker costs after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, but said demand had subsequently become the dominant driver. "Some of the timing of those demand swings are triggered by external events, and we have some supply issues thrown in for good measure," he explained. A key factor on the transpacific has been tariff-related front-loading, said Mr Levine, pointing to the deadline for the US Section 122 tariff regime, under which a 10% global tariff was due to expire at the end of July, prompting importers to bring forward shipments amid fears of higher duties. He noted that the subsequent replacement tariffs had largely maintained the same duty level, potentially encouraging shippers to continue ordering while uncertainty persists over further tariff changes and ongoing Section 301 investigations. And the transpacific had proved more resilient than expected, he added, US west coast rates dipped by around $1,000 before rebounding, while east coast rates had remained close to their peak. Mr Levine said US ocean import projections from the National Retail Federation suggested September volumes could remain broadly level with August before declining in October. That could mean peak-season conditions persist into early September. "In terms of bookings, in terms of spot rates, that would mean we're probably still in that peak," he said. Container Trades Statistics CEO Nigel Pusey told The Loadstar that H1 volume data supported the view that tariff concerns had triggered a significant rush of cargo, particularly from China. Transpacific volumes ex-Far East fell 3% in Q1 but rebounded 11% in Q2 - the first quarterly growth in the trade for at least six quarters. Mr Pusey explained that the increase was concentrated in April and May, with June broadly flat. Greater China-US volumes were down 12% in Q1, but surged 22% in Q2. "Interestingly enough, if you dig slightly deeper, it was all in April and May, because June was pretty flat. But when you drill down underneath that, what's probably more interesting is that Greater China to the US - not Canada and Mexico - was down 12% in the first quarter, but up a massive 22% in Q2. So that just shows you how whatever was going on, there was a big rush to get cargo out of China." He said restocking had been taking place for more than a year amid tariff concerns, but the scale of the latest increase was more notable. "And just to reflect that, the price index is up 42% for the whole of North America for the first six months, just off the basis of those two boom months," he added. Mr Levine highlighted that supply disruption was also supporting rates, with congestion following successive typhoons in the Far East affecting ports including Shanghai and Shenzhen.

Asia-USWC rates surge as shippers look to beat Panama Canal restrictions

Asia-US west coast rates are surging at an even faster pace this week, as carriers look to cash in ahead of concerns around the impact of vessel reductions through the Panama Canal. However, it seems the speed of decline of Asia-North Europe rates has been arrested. According to Drewry's World Container Index (WCI), Shanghai-Los Angeles and Shanghai-New York spots climbed 9% week on week, to $6,802 and $9,507 per 40ft comparing favourably with the 6% growth rate recorded by LA last week and only a percentage point down on New York's. Drewry noted: "Transpacific trade remains resilient, while carriers continue to manage supply through blanked sailings and capacity reductions. According to Drewry's Container Capacity Insight, seven blanked sailings have been announced for the next week. "Additionally, capacity in August declined 9% month of month on Asia-US east coast and fell 0.4% month on month on Asia-US west coast, further tightening space availability." It added: "Drewry expects freight rates to remain stable next week, due to tightened capacity." Freightos' Baltic Index confirmed a similar growth rate for the Asia-USWC trades, with a 9% week-on-week uptick to $7,422 per 40ft, but contended that the pace of growth on Asia-USEC trades had slowed to just 3%, at $9,422 per 40ft. According to Linerlytica, the picture was somewhat different, as it predicted the decision of the Panama Canal authority (ACP) to impose further restrictions on vessel transits could take Asia-USEC spots close to $11,000 per 40ft. ACP said that, from 3 September, the number of daily slots at its Neopanamax locks would be adjusted to nine, and at the Panamax locks slots, reduced to 25, with a further reduction, to 23, on 15 September. This is from a normal daily average of 34. It said: "Despite the arrival of the rainy season in Panama and the water-saving measures implemented by the Panama Canal to mitigate the adverse effects of the El Niño event, current watershed conditions require additional action to support the long-term sustainability of transit operations." ACP is also rejigging its daily auction system by splitting vessels into four commodity groups, to "promote a more equitable allocation process that better reflects market composition". They are: LNG and LPG vessels; dry bulk and general cargo vessels; containerships, vehicle carriers, ro-ro and refrigerated vessels; and chemical, crude and product tankers. This week, The Loadstar reported that the situation at the mouth of the canal had got to such a point that one carrier had paid $4.6m to land an auction slot, way up on the daily post-Iran war average of $385,000 and out of sight of the pre-war $140,000 average. One source told The Loadstar congestion was building to the point where delays of "up to 10 days" could be expected on eastbound transits, with "at least" 112 vessels waiting to enter the canal, and the situation for transits to the US west coast transits set to worsen in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, on European trades, the rate situation is notably less rosy, the WCI recording a 1% week-on-week drop for its Shanghai-Rotterdam leg, now at $4,401 per 40ft, and a downturn of 2% for Shanghai-Genoa, which is now trading at $4,955 per 40ft. Linerlytica noted this was the sixth consecutive weekly fall for European trades, with Vespucci Maritime CEO Lars Jensen pointing out: "Asia-North Europe has dropped $522 per 40ft since the peak six weeks ago, and Asia-Mediterranean is also down, $1,508".

Hapag-Lloyd to acquire 25% of box terminal at Rotterdam vital to Gemini

Hapag-Lloyd is set to increase its presence in Europe's largest gateway - a key pillar of the Gemini Cooperation's hub-and-spoke network. The German carrier is to acquire a 25% stake of APM Terminals' Maasvlakte II in Rotterdam to strengthen its long-term access to "automated terminal capacity" and boost its position in "one of Europe's key container hubs". The deal will see Hapag-Lloyd support the terminal's development, capacity expansion, and operational performance alongside APMT, which will retain operational control. It also reinforces Maasvlakte II's role as a key European hub for the vessel-sharing partnership between Hapag-Lloyd and Maersk. "With the planned investment in Rotterdam, we will further enhance the efficiency and reliability of our network. The terminal is a key element for the Gemini Cooperation and fits well with our strategy to build a stronger terminal portfolio in core markets," said Dheeraj Bhatia, CTIO of Hapag-Lloyd and CEO of Hanseatic Global Terminals, the carrier's terminals and infrastructure division. APMT CEO Keith Svendsen added: "Hapag-Lloyd's investment is a strong vote of confidence in a terminal that is critical to the Gemini network and to Rotterdam. "APM Terminals remains the operator and our ambition is to make Maasvlakte II the best terminal in Northern Europe for every customer calling. That means improving safety, quality, delivery, and cost, in that order, while expanding deepsea berth and teu capacity to support customer growth over the decades." Operational since 2015, Maasvlakte II is undergoing a major expansion that will add 1,000 metres of deepsea berth, taking its total to 2,000 metres, more yard capacity, four additional rail tracks, as well as automated terminal tractors and other equipment, and take annual handling capacity to 5.4m teu. Financial details of the deal were not disclosed, and completion remains subject to approval from relevant authorities and regulators.