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China-India rates ease but port delays still a strain on services

Rates for containers moving from China to India have begun to cool as seasonal import demand, associated with India's festival-driven consumption, loses momentum. New data secured by The Loadstar points to a 10%-20% decline in spot rates for bookings from major Chinese load ports to India, particularly JNPA (Nhava Sheva) on the west coast and Chennai on the east. For example, Indian importers are now able to book a 40ft shipment from Shanghai to JNPA at about $3,200 per box, down from about $3,800 a month ago. Likewise, rates ex-Shanghai to Chennai have dropped to $3,200 per 40ft from $3,900. Ocean rates from other Asian hubs like Hong Kong and Singapore to India have also begun to trend down, after remaining elevated over the past two months, according to the data. Hong Kong-JNPA rates are currently in the region of $3,600/40ft, down from $3,800 a month ago, while carriers are booking freight from Singapore to JNPA at about $3,400/40ft, 5% lower than in September. Spot rates from Hong Kong to Chennai have fallen 15%, to $3,300/40ft, the data indicates. But executives at leading intra-Asia carriers claimed the latest moderate correction should not be seen as the onset of a broader cyclical downturn as, according to them, trades from Asia to India and the Middle East still remained caught up in port challenges and delays across the region. "Our Asia-India-Middle East vessels continue to operate under a lot of operational strain on the Persian Gulf end," one source told The Loadstar. "Delays at Khor Fakkan are not getting any better." Amid sliding sailing schedules for Asian services, vessel bunching added considerable berthing window pressure at JNPA recently. However, India-China trade indicators are bullish. According to available data, Indian imports from China, by value, saw a meteoric rise in the first three quarters this year, up 23% year on year, underscoring the strength of trade flows that had helped propel the resurgent demand for container shipping. While trade between India and China has historically favoured Beijing by a massive margin, India's exports to China have gained measurable pace in the past few years as a result of accelerated bilateral negotiations. The rebalancing has also provided regional carriers with reasonably better cargo yields on the backhaul. Freight from India for intra-Asia operators in the past had been in negative territory, often involving $5 per container for insurance coverage. The demand boom has also driven an influx of fresh capacity into the tradelane, mainly connecting intra-Asia markets into JNPA and Chennai in recent months. India's overall export trade outlook has significantly strengthened in recent months, despite the supply chain turmoil plaguing major trade routes. According to provisional data, India's fiscal year 2026-27 H1 exports, by value, were up 18.5% year on year, growth mainly driven by electronics, engineering goods, chemicals, and agricultural products. "The strength of the first-half performance lies in the diversity of its growth drivers," said SC Ralhan, president of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations. "Sustaining this balance, while expanding our market reach, will be crucial in the second half of the financial year," he added.

AI cargo moderation expected as growth slows

Demand growth for AI-related shipments is starting to slow down despite continued investment in the sector, according to Rotate. Speaking at the Air Cargo Forum in Miami, Ryan Keyrouse, chief executive of the air cargo consultancy and data firm, said that cloud computing exports from Asia Pacific tripled in 2025. However, demand and growth have since slowed and normalised. Monthly demand growth for this vertical began steadily rising in January 2025 and peaked at around 10% in the middle of last year but has since slowed. Meanwhile, total monthly cloud computing volumes peaked at just under 100,000 tonnes in April 2026, but as of August, the monthly total had fallen to around 85,000 tonnes. Kerouse said that there is a strong correlation between AI investment and air cargo volumes, but he questioned whether the recent slowdown in AI-related air cargo volumes means this correlation is beginning to weaken. Research presented by Roate shows that worldwide AI spend will hit $2.7trn this year and $3.6trn in 2027. "While there is this incredible rise (in AI cargo volumes), it is flattening out. The key question is what will happen next year. Spend correlates quite well with tonnage. Next year we're expected to invest more in CAPEX," said Keyrouse. Keyrouse added: "It's interesting, the dynamic where (AI) has been growing and slowing down, and investments in CAPEX were there, which would suggest continued growth. The real question is, will it continue?" He added: "This conflicts with the data which shows AI-related cargo slowing down and plateauing, though." There is good reason to be concerned about the growth sustainability of AI cargo, he said. Keyrouse said several people in the air cargo industry had raised whether "regulatory, capacity and energy issues" would contribute to a slowdown in the AI-market. While these question marks hang over the market, a survey carried out by Rotate shows that overall, the air cargo market remains positive for the outlook of AI-related volumes, even if the rate of growth does come down. Keyrouse said: "The majority of air cargo professionals believe that it will continue growing but it will be much more moderate than it has been." Rotate is also looking into where AI is growing. The majority of AI shipments out of Asia have been flown to the US, with the remainder spread evenly to the rest of the world. Production and transit hubs now include Singapore and Mexico, and data centre markets include India, Malaysia and Thailand. The next emerging AI-related region could be the Middle East as there are plans to open the "Stargate UAE" AI data centre, stated Keyrouse. Keyrouse added that cloud and AI, including cloud computing, computers and parts, and semiconductors, accounted for 33% of air cargo demand growth in January to July this year compared to the same period in 2024.

The cold chain just got weaponised - logistics is exposed

A recent cyberattack on French supermarket refrigeration showed how remote controls can cause physical losses. The warning extends to cold stores, pharmaceutical warehouses and connected reefer fleets. At four in the morning, a delivery driver at an Intermarché in Gradignan, south-west France, found the cold room flooded. Its temperature had climbed to 50°C, setting off a sprinkler. At another store in Normandy, equipment was damaged after temperatures reportedly hit 80°C. The food was ruined, and nobody had needed to ...