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Car carrier orderbook surge raises oversupply fears

The orderbook for pure car and truck carriers (PCTCs) has surged amid booming Chinese vehicle exports and elevated charter earnings, raising concerns that an expanding fleet could outpace demand as European restrictions on Chinese vehicle imports threaten to curb a key source of cargo growth. Greek brokerage Intermodal said last week that 82 PCTCs were contracted in the first nine months of 2026, compared with just nine vessels ordered throughout 2025 and a 10-year annual average of 35 vessels. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio has consequently risen to 26%, well above its historical average of 14%, pointing to a substantial expansion in carrying capacity over the coming years. CMA CGM boss Rudolphe Saade said in a recent interview with Lebanon's L'Orient-Le Jour that the French line targets to have 21 PCTCs in the coming years. Currently, its 3PL arm, CEVA Logistics, operates 11 PCTCs. Fuelling the surge in newbuilding orders is the growth in Chinese vehicle exports, which totalled 8.2m units in the first nine months of 2026, up 66% year-on-year. However, the immediate impact is likely to be limited, with 64% of the orderbook, measured by tonnage, scheduled for delivery from 2028 onwards. This backloaded delivery schedule should help defer much of the supply pressure. China's rapidly expanding automotive exports have kept charter rates elevated, with ships being fixed for $95,000 per day, near levels last seen in 2024. Subdued domestic demand and intense price competition have encouraged Chinese manufacturers to seek overseas markets. Domestic NEV sales contracted by 9.4% year on year, reinforcing the industry's reliance on exports to absorb production. The resulting increase in long-haul shipments, particularly from China to Europe and Latin America, has boosted car-mile demand, while limited backhaul cargoes and diversions around the Cape of Good Hope have lengthened voyages and tied up vessel capacity. Yet the demand outlook faces mounting risks from European trade policy. In October 2026, the EU and China reportedly reached a preliminary understanding on proposed restrictions covering Chinese-built conventional and plug-in hybrid vehicles. Under the proposed four-year arrangement, which could take effect in December subject to formal implementation, annual imports would initially be capped at 350,000 units, with the quota increasing by 6% annually. Battery-electric vehicles would remain subject to separate EU anti-subsidy duties. Intermodal said: "Against projected Chinese hybrid imports of around 800,000 units in 2026, these measures could significantly constrain shipment growth along the China-Europe corridor. The impact on car-mile demand will largely depend on manufacturers' ability to redirect exports to alternative markets." Meanwhile, Chinese automakers like BYD and SAIC Motor are expanding their own shipping fleets, potentially reducing their reliance on vessels chartered in the open market. This could further alter demand for third-party tonnage even if China's overall vehicle exports continue growing.

Challenge Group adds new US-Europe-India freighter operation

The Challenge Group is adding a new widebody freighter service connecting India, Belgium and the US. The service will utilise a Boeing 777 freighter and operate on a loop of Navi Mumbai International Airport (NMI), Liège Airport (LGG) and Chicago Rockford (RFD). The twice-weekly service will start on 4 November and follows the group's decision to temporarily suspend freighter operations at the Indian airport due to operational challenges. Challenge added that in Liege, it can offer a network of approximately 1,500 truck movements per month for onward access across Europe. The service will primarily cater for pharmaceuticals, oversized and out-of-gauge cargo, with plans to introduce live animal (AVI) transportation in the future. "Chicago is a strategically important market, serving a broad range of industries that depend on reliable international cargo connectivity," said Or Zak, group chief commercial officer, Challenge Group. "By introducing this service through Rockford, we are creating additional opportunities for customers moving specialised cargo between India, Europe and the US." The new service also supports RFD's ongoing efforts to expand its international freighter network and establish the airport as a gateway for specialised cargo entering the country, Challenge said. "This new service is a direct result of our continued efforts to attract international freighter operators to Rockford, particularly the work we have undertaken to establish the airport as a leading cold chain corridor into the United States," said Zack Oakley, executive director, RFD. "We see significant potential to grow this partnership beyond the initial twice-weekly service, including increasing flight frequencies and supporting AVI transport." The airport pointed out that RFD is located within approximately 40 miles of animal quarantine facilities, at a comparable distance to Chicago O'Hare International Airport (ORD), and is in the process of securing approval from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) to support AVI shipments. "RFD is well positioned to support this service as it develops, with cargo-focused infrastructure and the capacity to accommodate specialised freight," said Rene Espinet, vice president - cargo business development, RFD. "Challenge will have access to the wider Chicago market, combined with the efficiency, flexibility, and reduced congestion of a dedicated freighter airport." RFD is also coordinating dedicated temperature-controlled trucking capacity, providing onward transportation to destinations in the Rockford area and warehousing facilities in Chicago. The announcement was made during the TIACA Air Cargo Forum.

Air cargo executives call for new midsize freighter, with eyes on 787F

Air cargo executives are concerned with what aircraft will replace the Boeing 767 freighters that now compose a hefty chunk of the midsize cargo aircraft fleet, and at this year's Cargo Facts Symposium in Nashville, they called on Airbus, Boeing and conversion shops to get busy on such a project. Many executives view the 787 - either a Boeing-produced dedicated freighter or a passenger-to-cargo conversion - as the most-logical answer to the 767-replacement riddle, though interest also exists for a cargo variant of Airbus' A330neo. Basically, airlines are desperate for a new midsize freighter with modern engines. "Hopefully, Airbus or Boeing come up with something that we can fly, because we're starting to get nervous about what comes next," LATAM Cargo Group chief executive Andres Bianchi said on 22 October. "They should have started already... I think both of them are late." LATAM now operates 20 767Fs and can add nine more, taking those from LATAM's passenger operation and converting them into freighters. But the 767Fs "cannot carry us into the second half of the 2030s", Bianchi said. LATAM is one of many airlines globally that depend heavily on 767Fs. The jets can carry roughly 50t of payload - less than half as much as the largest widebody freighters - making them ideal for operating medium-haul, medium-demand routes. So popular is the type that Boeing continues assembling them, but not for long. Its backlog is dwindling and a production halt is in sight. The problem is that a one-to-one replacement with a new-generation widebody is not available. Airbus and Boeing are largely focused on developing much-larger widebody freighters, Boeing with its 777-8F, which is several years from service entry, and Airbus with its A350F, which it aims to have certificated in the second half of 2027. That is where the 787 could come in. Yes, Boeing's flagship is larger, costlier and more complex than the 767. Still, the idea has backers. Those include aircraft conversion shops, whose executives see a chance to develop such an aircraft, likely in partnership with Boeing. "The right answer will be for [Boeing] to build a passenger-freighter conversion of the 787," Air Transport Services Group chief executive Greg Mays said on 22 October. "I'd cut a hole in one today," he added, referring to a cargo door. Asked to comment, Boeing offered a previously issued statement. "As we look ahead to future medium-widebody freighter options, the 787 is a natural place for us to look," the company said. "We continue to evaluate our options in this space and are listening to our customers." Israel Aerospace Industries is also interested. The conversion company's vice-president Yaacov Berkovitz posted on LinkedIn last week: "The Boeing 787 is the next chapter in passenger-to-freighter conversions." Speaking in Nashville on 22 October, Berkovitz added: "This is a more-complex conversion. It has to be done with the OEM." Jim Gibbs, chief executive of conversion firm Kansas Modification Center (KMC), agreed that any shop seeking to convert a 787 had best partner with Boeing, citing the aircraft's composite fuselage and advanced systems. "You have external loads based on carbon fibres, and carbon-fibre stringers. You have common core-technology. There's a bunch of stuff in there that could easily cost hundreds of millions of dollars," Gibbs said. "If you had an OEM partner on the deal, it could actually cut the conversion timeframe and cost in half," he added. The idea has momentum, but do not expect to see 787Fs taking to the skies anytime soon. Such projects take years to reach fruition. Also, demand is roaring for passenger-configured 787s. Boeing already cannot meet demand, and airlines are not yet offering up the number of second-hand 787s required to support widespread conversions.