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China remains strong driver of trade and air cargo

China remains a powerful driver of global trade and airfreight, despite growing Southeast Asia production and supply chains that have sustained strong air cargo demand out of the region. Speaking to Air Cargo News, professor Steven Altman, director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at New York University's Stern School of Business, said that China's trade growth has in fact defied forecasts. "The strength of China's trade growth, exports growth last year, and exports and imports this year, was also one of the surprises that we've seen recently," he said. "Because given the trade policy environment and the geopolitics, the forecasts were calling for a substantial slowdown in China's trade growth, and that has not happened," added Altman, who leads the research initiative behind both the DHL Globalization Tracker and the DHL Trade Atlas. "If we look at 2025, China's trade volume grew about twice as fast as what was predicted at the beginning of the year. China's trade forecast has also been upgraded for 2026 to call for actually faster growth in 2026 than 2025." He noted that China's imports had become stronger and exports had diversified, supporting airfreight trade flows in and out of the country. "For a while it was just driven by exports, and China's imports were quite weak. But recently, we've also seen stronger growth in China's imports," Altman explained. The export mix has shifted towards electric and hybrid vehicles, technology-oriented products, intermediate goods and capital goods. He stressed there has been a "transformation in terms of China's role as an exporter". The country has "become particularly important exporter in automotive industry with the strength of electric vehicles as well as hybrid vehicles coming out of China, much more technology-oriented products, as well as this shift toward more intermediate goods exports coming out of China and capital goods," he elaborated. "So China keeps having more and more sophisticated mix of exports, and as they've lost competitiveness in some of the industries, they've rewarded and made up for it in new industries where China has become very strong." Southeast Asia keeps growing At the same time as China's trade is evolving, Southeast Asia has turned into a trade powerhouse, partly fuelled by China Plus One diversification. Growing economies in Southeast Asia have been fuelling a steady increase in production and supply chains in the region over the last decade, although the US-China trade war and tariffs have accelerated these supply chain changes. Alongside this, last year saw airlines move capacity from China to Southeast Asia and also away from the transpacific trade lane to Asia-Europe, although the transpacific trade lane has since regained strength. Speaking about Southeast Asia's growth trajectory, Altman said: "If I think about what's likely to happen over 10 years, I think Southeast Asia is really one of the most powerful hotspots in terms of global trade growth." He said this is likely to be reflected in the next edition of the DHL Trade Atlas, which looks at the speed and the scale of trade growth and is due to be released in March 2027. Analysis in the most recent edition of the Trade Atlas showed multiple countries in the region that were performing well based on these factors. Vietnam and Indonesia "were particularly strong", while recently Malaysia and Thailand have also had strong growth, commented Altman. Southeast Asia has several advantages to support its trade growth, he said. One is macroeconomic growth, while another is its geography - it is at the centre of global trade growth, close to South Asia and India, where trade is also growing. He added: "Countries so far in Southeast Asia have been able to play this connector role in the current period of geopolitical tensions, and that has been a strong, powerful driver for their trade growth." On the subject of production shifting from China to Southeast Asia, Altman further commented that because manufacturing in the latter is not as sophisticated, there are more trade opportunities. "Let's say a firm relocates production from China to Vietnam or Indonesia, Thailand, or Malaysia. This will tend to result in more trade because those Southeast Asian countries do not have the same domestic supplier base that China has, so you're going to need to bring in more inputs to produce in those economies, which are smaller and not quite as sophisticated in terms of manufacturing as China is. "So often, a relocation from China to Southeast Asian countries results in more trade because of that supply chain effect, and also it brings foreign direct investment as well. So it ultimately results in more rather than less international activity."

Containership charter rates at a four-year high despite record orderbook

Containership charter rates have climbed to their highest level in four years, despite falling fixtures, and a record orderbook pointing to a major influx of capacity in 2028. Braemar's charter index is at 325.8, up 21% year on year and its highest level since autumn 2022. Meanwhile, the number of fixtures between 1 January and 17 October was down 15% year on year, at 853, while capacity fixed declined 10%, to 2.54m teu. "A few weeks back we showed a record orderbook and a 2028 delivery wave the size of the 2002 fleet. You would expect charterers to be sitting back and waiting. They are not," says today's report. The martime consultancy said the apparent contradiction reflected a shortage of prompt tonnage, with owners having secured long-term employment for vessels during 2024 and 2025. Charterers are responding by booking further ahead, added Braemar, noting that on a capacity-weighted basis, ships are now being fixed an average of 7.8 months before delivery, against 6.8 months a year earlier. For vessels of 3,000 teu and above, the lead time exceeds 10 months. In the third quarter, half of fixtures were for ships delivering more than three months ahead, compared with 23% across the same period of 2025. At the same time, charter costs have diverged sharply from freight rates. While the Freightos Baltic Index (FBX) fell 61% between January and October 2025, Braemar's charter index rose 3%. "Relative to freight rates, charter costs have run at roughly double their 2021-2024 average," Braemar highlighted. The pressure is particularly evident in the feeder and panamax segments, vessels of 1,500-1,900 teu fixed for nine to 15 months now commanding a median $28,625 a day, up 18% year on year. Recent 12-month fixtures have even reached $36,500 a day, according to Braemar data. In the 4,000-5,099 teu segment, fixtures fell 39%, while short-period rates rose to a median $58,000 a day, from $51,000. Ships aged 20 years or more accounted for 30% of fixtures this year, up from 26% in 2025. A 20-year-old 1,700 teu feeder still earns a median $24,000 a day, while a panamax built in 1997 fixed at $50,000 a day in September. Maersk has emerged as the busiest charterer, increasing fixtures by 14% and chartered capacity by 20%, despite the overall market contraction. CMA CGM, last year's leading charterer, cut its fixtures by 41%. However, the longer-term outlook is arguably less favourable for owners, warned Braemar analyst Jonathan Roach. He highlighted that since January 2025, 94 fixtures, representing about 570,000 teu, had involved newbuildings scheduled for delivery in 2028. The largest delivery wave on record, paired with potential easing of Red Sea disruption and forecasted weaker demand in 2027, could all undermine charter rates. "Charterers are queuing today. By 2028, owners may be the ones in the queue," summerised Mr Roach.

Boxship orderbook bulges as race for giant vessels heats up

The container shipping orderbook has swelled to 46.5% of the active fleet, a post-2009 peak, as carriers race to secure ultra-large tonnage. With the orderbook at 16.2m teu, newbuilding activity shows no sign of slowing - Chinese shipyards alone have booked a record 4.94m teu this year, accounting for 88% of the total capacity ordered, according to Linerlytica. The orderbook-to-fleet ratio is also expected to grow, with Maersk and CMA CGM in the market for more giant ships. Tellingly, Hengli Heavy Industries announced today it had won orders for 52 ultra-large dual-fuel containerships: 20 of 24,000 teu; 20 ; of 19,000 teu; and a dozen of 22,000 teu. The 24,000 teu orders are believed to be from MSC, which reportedly wants 10 LNG dual-fuelled vessels, while upgrading 10 existing 22,000 teu orders to 24,000 teu. The Swiss-Italian liner major is said to be splashing out close to $2.5bn. This will bring MSC's haul at Hengli to 30 LNG dual-fuelled 24,000 teu ships, and more than 60 in total - a move believed to be spurred by its competitors' moves. Maersk, which was dethroned from the top of the liner rankings in 2022 by MSC, is now eyeing a dozen 24,000 teu ships, up to 24 LNG dual-fuel 19,000 teu vessels and six at 18,600 teu. South Korean and Chinese shipyards have been invited to submit quotes. Shipbrokers said CMA CGM has chosen Yangzijiang to build a dozen LNG dual-fuelled 24,000 teu containerships, although the French line has yet to confirm this. And the activity extends across segments. Zhonggu Logistics has entered the large ship segment, ordering a 14,000 teu pair at Hudong-Zhonghua for $155m each, joining fellow mid-sized shipping lines such as Emirates Shipping Line, Regional Container Lines, TS Linesm and China United Lines. Delivery is set for 2029 to 2030. On Tuesday, HMM announced it had ordered eight 13,000 teu LNG dual-fuelled ships from HD Hyundai Heavy Industries for around $1.5bn, for deployment on its Far East-India-Mediterranean service from 2029. South Korea's flagship carrier has also acquired four feeder vessels second-hand. These will be integrated into emerging regional feeder networks linked to major hub ports, reinforcing HMM's hub-and-spoke network competitiveness.