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'Carrier selection matters' when it comes to getting your goods on time

The Asia-North America tradelane is facing the highest ocean freight disruption risk over the coming weeks. Reduced carrier capacity and growing difficulty securing bookings threaten shipment reliability, according to WiseTech Global. The company's November Ocean Freight Risk Outlook, released today covering weeks 45-48, rates the Asia-North America and Asia-Europe trades as high-risk overall, with Europe-North America assessed as medium risk. It explains that on the transpacific, planned carrier capacity is expected to tighten in the second half of November, driven by reduced supply rather than stronger demand. The demand-to-supply ratio is forecast to reach 128% in week 47, indicating significant capacity constraint. Booking security risk is also expected to climb to 71% by week 48, well above its historical average of 41%, suggesting growing difficulty securing space on preferred sailings. At the same time, service reliability remains weak, with monthly on-time performance slipping, from 26.9% in September to 25.6% in October. Although the latest weekly figure had improved to 27.3%, delays of eight days or more remained the largest arrival outcome. WiseTech also highlighted continuing berthing delays and renewed weather disruption across East Asia, alongside potential for industrial action, as further threats to vessel schedules. "In the lead-up to the end of the year, Asia-North America is where we're seeing the most risk," said Jon Charles, senior product manager at WiseTech Global. "Multiple factors are contributing, including reduced planned carrier capacity, rather than stronger demand, pushing the demand-to-supply ratio to 128% in week 47. What is significant is the combination of tighter capacity and elevated booking acceptance risk. "That's the strongest risk signal we look for, because it suggests tighter capacity is already changing booking request outcomes," he explained. According to WiseTech, the outlook for Asia-Europe is different. The demand-to-supply ratio is forecast to fall from 100% in week 45 to 84% by week 47, and to 73% in week 48, indicating easing capacity pressure as the month progresses. Booking security risk is expected to remain below its historical average of 35%, declining from 23% in week 45, to 20% in weeks 46-47, before rising slightly to 23% in week 48. However, this improving capacity picture contrasts with persistently weak service performance, with on-time arrivals continuing to deteriorate. Last month, just 9.3% of shipments on the Asia-Europe trade arrived at the destination port on or before the carrier's promised arrival date, down from 9.9% in September. The latest weekly performance was just 6.5% on time, while 39.1% of arrivals saw delays of eight days or more. Shipment transit time reliability also fell across both Asian tradelanes in October, reaching 21% on Asia-North America, down six percentage points month on month, and 35% on Asia-Europe, a five-point decline. Europe-North America presents a comparatively more stable capacity picture, with planned carrier space remaining above forecast demand, and booking acceptance risk below its historical average. However, on-time performance fell from 39.2% in September to 34.8% in October, while the latest weekly result dropped to 24.6%. Transit-time reliability also weakened, falling three percentage points to 46%. Industrial action at European ports presents an additional potential risk to schedules across both Europe-related tradelanes. However, Mr Charles underscored: "Across all three tradelanes, carrier reliability varies substantially, so carrier selection matters in managing lead-time and on-time arrival risk."

UK's East Midlands Airport wins another freighter service

The UK's East Midlands Airport has this week welcomed another freighter service connecting the Midlands airport with China. The Central China Longhao Airlines', also known as Air Central, service, will operate twice per week between East Midlands Airport and Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport. The first flight landed in the UK on 2 November and was operated by a Boeing 747-400 freighter. East Midlands Airport's commercial director Adam Andrews said: "We're really pleased to welcome Central China Langhao as a new airline operating to East Midlands as its gateway into the UK. "Longhao's decision to start operations here provides further evidence of the airport's growing strength and reputation within the rapidly evolving Chinese air cargo market. "We are continuing to attract more cargo operators, who understand that our great central location and available capacity, helped by a 24/7 operation, together make us an unbeatable proposition in the UK." State-owned China Central Longhao Airlines is based in China's Henan Province and played a key role in the construction of Zhengzhou international air cargo hub. According to fleet tracking site Planespotters.net, the airline operates a fleet of seven aircraft - five Boeing 737-800Fs and two Boeing 747-400Fs. East Midlands Airport has seen its cargo volumes grow by 5% year on year between January and September, while in September there was a 6.3% increase. In May last year, the airport launched cargo growth plans designed to meet an estimated 54% increase in demand for its cargo operations over the next two decades. Four plots close to the runway, totalling 50 hectares, were earmarked for cargo development. Then in July, the airport reconfigured its cargo aprons so that out of 27 cargo stands, 12 can now take wide-bodied aircraft, up from seven previously. The airport is also hoping to recruit a head of cargo development.

Major liners set to resume all Asia-Europe services through Suez

All the mainline operators look set to resume Suez Canal transits for their Asia-North Europe and Asia-Mediterranean services. Taiwan's Evergreen will join its Ocean Alliance partners in doing just that this week, while Yang Ming and South Korea's HMM will join their Premier Alliance partners restarting Suez crossings next month. Linerlytica's report today says Evergreen will send the 16,556 teu Ever Eon and Ever Edit on eastbound Suez transits on the Ocean Alliance's NEU7/CES service on 7 and 11 November, respectively, with the 20,124 teu Ever Gifted on the alliance's MD2 service on 16 November. The Premier Alliance's Asia Mediterranean 1 (MD1) service will resume Suez transits next month, adding a new call at Sokhna to cater for Asia-Red Sea cargo. The revised MD1 rotation will call at Ningbo, Shanghai, Shekou, Singapore, Sokhna, (Suez Canal), Damietta, Ambarli, Izmit, Mersin, Damietta, (via Suez), Singapore, Kaohsiung, and Ningbo, starting with Yang Ming's 11,714 teu YM Trust at Ningbo on 13 November. The revised MD1 will turn in 84 days and will deploy 12 ships of 11,700 to 14,000 teu from Yang Ming, compared with 16 ships on the present Cape route. Shipping lines turned away from Suez and diverted vessels round the Cape of Good Hope in late 2023, after the Houthis began attacking vessels in response to Israel's conflict with Palestine. In recent months, vessel capacity constraints, and competitive pressures following a temporary easing of regional security risks, have convinced shipping lines to resume Suez crossings. Israeli carrier Zim is the only major shipping line sticking to the Cape route, possibly due to its nationality. HMM's spokesperson told The Loadstar South Korea's flagship carrier had assessed the risks before deciding to resume Suez transits. She said: "This matter was decided and agreed upon from a Premier Alliance perspective, following a comprehensive review of market conditions and safety aspects." Linerlytica said: "All three main carrier alliances, along with MSC, are set to make a full return to the Suez by Q1 27, leaving Zim as the only main carrier left on the Cape route." The Gemini Cooperation partners, Maersk and Hapah-Lloyd, have also signalled a full Suez resumption by Q1 27, and launched a new Asia-Mediterranean service that passes through the canal. The shortened sailing times do not augur well for Asia-Europe and Asia-Mediterranean rates, however, with the 1 November price hikes failing to gain traction, and further rate declines are expected in the coming weeks, as supply growth is not outpacing growth in demand. With this, shipping lines are also adding more Red Sea calls to capitalise on rising Shanghai-Persian Gulf rates. Evergreen is relaunching its China-Red Sea service on 12 November to coincide with the resumption of its Suez transits. The OGRD service will call at Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo, Shekou, Singapore, Jeddah, Sokhna, Aqaba, Jeddah, Port Klang, and Qingdao. The service will turn in 56 days but will initially only deploy four 7,000-9,000 teu ships, operating on a fortnightly basis starting with the 7,024 teu Ever Superb at Qingdao. MSC has extended its Far East-Indian subcontinent Shikra service to Khor Fakkan in the UAE and Oman's Sohar port, as it capitalises on the high demand and freight rates to the Middle East, despite severe congestion at these ports. The first Khor Fakkan call was made on 18 October, by the 24,346 teu MSC Micol under the new Shikra rotation that calls at Dalian, Xingang, Qingdao, Shanghai, Ningbo, Nansha, Singapore, Nhava Sheva, Mundra, Khor Fakkan, Sohar, and Dalian. The extended service will turn in 15 weeks, using up to 15 14,000-24,000 teu ships. The largest of them will call at the western Indian ports as well as Khor Fakkan and Sohar. These ships will face severe delays, especially at Khor Fakkan, with waiting times of more than two weeks to berth.