Calmer waters for container spot rates, but 'fragile' Middle East a threat
There was a certain sense of calm about the container spot freight rate market this week, with slight declines on both the transpacific and Asia-Europe trades as capacity constraints eased and demand remained seasonally subdued.
Drewry's World Container Index (WCI) recorded a 2% week-on-week drop on its Shanghai-Rotterdam leg, to end at $3,615 per 40ft, while the Shanghai-Genoa was flat at $4,166 per 40ft, which indicated that new FAK (freight all kinds) levels, introduced by carriers on 1 November, were unable to stick.
The carriers had aimed to push the Asia-North Europe spot rate up to around $4,500 per 40ft and to around $5,000 on Mediterranean shipments. A further attempt at higher FAK levels, around the same as before, is scheduled for 15 November, but modest demand and ample capacity is likely to weigh against them, European forwarders told The Loadstar.
"On Asia-Europe rates, we did have initial rates for the fist half of November extended from mid-October, but these are starting to drop a little - I suppose, with the early Chinese New Year, carriers are expecting a small peak, but bookings at this stage would suggest it will not be like previous years," one said.
Analysts at Linerlytica reported this week that carriers had been offering discounted rates, "ranging from $2,700 to $3,400 per 40ft on Asia-North Europe shipments".
The continuing return of services to transiting Suez is also affecting market sentiment, by the expectation it will release more supply and shorten transit times, and thus drive down rates.
According to Xeneta: "The return of networks to the Suez Canal releases capacity absorbed by longer diversions around the Cape of Good Hope, with 600,000 teu already released.
"In October, carriers committed 467,297 teu of weekly capacity to the Red Sea - while this is 50% of the pre-crisis level of August 2023, it is roughly double the offered capacity compared with the end of August 2026."
The freight rate intelligence platform added that it expected spot rates to decline some 30% over the course of 2027.
"The Red Sea is pivotal to ocean container shipping in 2027 because it offers both sides of the coin," Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand said. "If there is a full return [to Suez], freight rates could plummet.
"We could also be faced with the opposite extreme if a deterioration in the security situation in the Red Sea forces carriers to revert to Cape of Good Hope diversions. This would bring chaos to ocean networks and upward pressure on rates.
"The significant ramping up of Red Sea services in recent months should not distract from the fragility of the geo-political situation in the wider Middle East - it will not take much to ignite the situation again, and then the house of cards comes falling down," he added.
On the transpacific trade, the WCI's Shanghai-Los Angeles route was stable, at $7,539 per 40ft, while the Shanghai-New York leg was down 3%, to $9,303 per 40ft.
Forwarders on the trade reported "minor pricing adjustments", as the market has cooled since approaching pandemic-era highs last month, and with three blanked sailings scheduled for next week, compared with five this week, Drewry projected a "decline in [transpacific] rates next week".
US west coast forwarder Freight Right said there had been "no widespread difficulty securing sailing space on China export lanes", with the October holiday rush having subsided.
"The earlier pressure on vessel space has eased, improving booking availability from China," it added. "Rate reductions remain selective - small decreases depend on the carrier and route, indicating gradual easing rather than a broad market correction."
