The off-peak that isn't: why January squeezes Europe's ecommerce logistics
Christmas returns, New Year demand for supplements and fitness products, and up to four weekday holidays leave some EU markets with just 11 delivery days in three weeks.
Most of the industry has its eyes on the fourth quarter. As The Loadstar reported last week, US consumers are expected to spend 6.7% more online this holiday season than last year. But for Europe's ecommerce networks, the pressure does not ease on 24 December. It simply shifts into January - a month most logistics calendars still file under off-peak.
In the first weeks of the year, three separate loads converge on the same warehouses, carriers and pickup points. And they land in the tightest delivery window of the year.
Three loads, one window
The first load is December coming back. As soon as offices reopen, shoppers start sending back Christmas gifts and online orders. In the UK, Royal Mail braced for half a million gifts to be returned in the first week of January 2026, with returns expected to climb by about 25%. Those parcels compete with new outbound orders for the same dock doors, staff and sorting capacity.
The second load is fresh demand. Many consumers start the year with health goals, and their baskets follow: supplements, sports nutrition, fitness equipment and diet products. Official UK figures show how strong the effect can be. The Office for National Statistics reported that retail sales volumes rose 1.8% in January 2026, the largest monthly gain since May 2024, with online sellers of sports supplements among the drivers. Supplements are the clearest case, but any category tied to New Year resolutions follows the same curve.
The third load is missing capacity. Public holidays shut carriers and pickup points. Temporary staff hired for the Christmas peak are gone by the end of December. And warehouses set receiving cut-offs ahead of the holidays, so an inbound delivery that slips by a few days can miss the first sales week of the year.
Eleven delivery days in three weeks
The holidays eat into that window more than many shippers realise. At WAPI, we counted the delivery days in the 18 EU markets where we fulfill supplements and collect cash on delivery (COD). Only 11 to 13 of the 15 weekdays between 21 December 2026 and 8 January 2027 are delivery days. Holidays that fall on a Saturday are not included.
6 markets sit at the bottom of the range, with 11 delivery days each: Bulgaria, Cyprus, Latvia, Poland, Romania and Slovakia. Each loses four weekdays to public holidays in the period, although in Slovakia the status of 6 January still needs to be confirmed before plans are locked in.
Figure 1. Weekday holidays between 21 December and 8 January in the six EU markets with the fewest delivery days. Source: WAPI
Nor do the closures line up. Latvia shuts on 31 December, Bulgaria moves its 26 December holiday to Monday 28 December, and Romania closes on both 6 and 7 January. A network serving several countries from one warehouse therefore has to plan a separate cut-off for each market. In Poland, a parcel that misses the last delivery on Wednesday 23 December will not move again until Monday 28 December - the same week the first returns start rolling in.
A second wave from China
While Europe works through its January peak, the next supply problem is already building in Asia. Chinese New Year falls on 6 February 2027, 11 days earlier than in 2026. China's State Council usually publishes the official holiday window around November, so the exact 2027 dates are not yet known.
The public holiday itself is the smallest part of the disruption. Factories typically wind down two to three weeks before the holiday, and many stay closed or run at reduced capacity for a month or more. Full output often does not return until mid-March, because a share of workers never come back to the same factory.
For European ecommerce, the timing is what hurts. Working back from those closures, the last reliable departures from China fall in early to mid January 2027 - squarely in the European demand peak. Packaging, labels and raw materials for the February and March replenishment therefore need to be ordered before Christmas, while warehouse teams in Europe are still absorbed by the fourth quarter.
Figure 2. The European January peak and the last reliable departures from China fall in the same weeks. Sources: WAPI, industry estimates
Where January hurts most
The squeeze does not hit all goods equally. Two groups carry the most risk: orders paid by cash on delivery, and products with a short shelf life. In January, many supplement orders fall into both.
With COD, the buyer pays only when the parcel arrives. If it turns up late, or sits at a closed pickup point, the buyer can simply refuse it - and the seller pays for transport both ways and loses the sale. COD remains widespread across some regions in Europe, and those regions lose the most delivery days over the holidays.
The cost of a refusal also grows with time. The parcel works its way back through the network alongside the Christmas returns and joins the same inspection queue. For a vitamin pack with only a few months of shelf life left, that delay can decide whether it returns to sale or is written off.
In my experience, most January failures start small: a parcel that waits too long at a pickup point, or a delivery attempt that fails on the last day before a closure. In our network, flagging parcels that are close to the pickup deadline lets the team reach the buyer in time, and that cuts expired pickups by 40-55%. When a new delivery request goes to the carrier automatically, it arrives 80% faster than a manual one. In January, that speed is often the difference between a sale and a refusal.
5 questions for your 3PL before the December cut-off
Most of these failures can be caught before the holidays. 5 questions reveal whether a logistics partner is ready for the peak after the peak.
Conclusion
The January peak, the year's shortest delivery window and the next round of orders to Asia all land in the same few weeks. A plan drawn up in December is too late for all three. For shippers and their logistics partners, January really starts in October, while stock targets, receiving slots and supplier orders can still be set with the Christmas peak ahead.
This post was sponsored by WAPI.
