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China-India rates ease but port delays still a strain on services

Rates for containers moving from China to India have begun to cool as seasonal import demand, associated with India's festival-driven consumption, loses momentum. New data secured by The Loadstar points to a 10%-20% decline in spot rates for bookings from major Chinese load ports to India, particularly JNPA (Nhava Sheva) on the west coast and Chennai on the east. For example, Indian importers are now able to book a 40ft shipment from Shanghai to JNPA at about $3,200 per box, down from about $3,800 a month ago. Likewise, rates ex-Shanghai to Chennai have dropped to $3,200 per 40ft from $3,900. Ocean rates from other Asian hubs like Hong Kong and Singapore to India have also begun to trend down, after remaining elevated over the past two months, according to the data. Hong Kong-JNPA rates are currently in the region of $3,600/40ft, down from $3,800 a month ago, while carriers are booking freight from Singapore to JNPA at about $3,400/40ft, 5% lower than in September. Spot rates from Hong Kong to Chennai have fallen 15%, to $3,300/40ft, the data indicates. But executives at leading intra-Asia carriers claimed the latest moderate correction should not be seen as the onset of a broader cyclical downturn as, according to them, trades from Asia to India and the Middle East still remained caught up in port challenges and delays across the region. "Our Asia-India-Middle East vessels continue to operate under a lot of operational strain on the Persian Gulf end," one source told The Loadstar. "Delays at Khor Fakkan are not getting any better." Amid sliding sailing schedules for Asian services, vessel bunching added considerable berthing window pressure at JNPA recently. However, India-China trade indicators are bullish. According to available data, Indian imports from China, by value, saw a meteoric rise in the first three quarters this year, up 23% year on year, underscoring the strength of trade flows that had helped propel the resurgent demand for container shipping. While trade between India and China has historically favoured Beijing by a massive margin, India's exports to China have gained measurable pace in the past few years as a result of accelerated bilateral negotiations. The rebalancing has also provided regional carriers with reasonably better cargo yields on the backhaul. Freight from India for intra-Asia operators in the past had been in negative territory, often involving $5 per container for insurance coverage. The demand boom has also driven an influx of fresh capacity into the tradelane, mainly connecting intra-Asia markets into JNPA and Chennai in recent months. India's overall export trade outlook has significantly strengthened in recent months, despite the supply chain turmoil plaguing major trade routes. According to provisional data, India's fiscal year 2026-27 H1 exports, by value, were up 18.5% year on year, growth mainly driven by electronics, engineering goods, chemicals, and agricultural products. "The strength of the first-half performance lies in the diversity of its growth drivers," said SC Ralhan, president of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations. "Sustaining this balance, while expanding our market reach, will be crucial in the second half of the financial year," he added.

CH Robinson invests in AI to speed up air cargo quoting

CH Robinson has continued its investment in AI with new agents for its freight forwarding business that it claims speed up the quoting process for air cargo shipments. The US forwarder said that its AI systems have so far determined and delivered over 80,000 price quotes for over 3,600 customers. "Quotes that used to take a day for an air shipment and two to three days for an ocean shipment now take two to three minutes," the company said. AI is also being implemented to help with customs document processing, which has become more labour-intensive with new trade agreements, layers of new tariffs, and stricter compliance rules. Mike Short, president of global forwarding, added: "Customers have information they need sooner. Data is more consistent. Processes are more predictable. When plans change or disruptions occur, customers can more quickly evaluate a new routing, mode of shipping, schedule or price. "Not to mention, speed-to-market is a real competitive advantage. The faster we get you a quote and handle your booking, the faster you get the ideal carrier and the ideal sailing or flight. "For an air shipment, life-saving medicines, perishable produce and critical automotive parts absolutely must arrive on time. Our Lean AI makes your supply chain a smarter, faster, better one." Mike Neill, chief technology officer, added: "Before agentic AI, we'd developed digital booking forms and data exchange setups with customers, but over the course of about 10 years achieved only about 5% automation for ocean and air booking requests. "Why was that such a tough hill to climb? Primarily because you quote your customer, then it's their suppliers booking with you. A customer might have 50 suppliers. With our agentic AI, all those booking requests no longer need to be handled manually." On the customs front, CH Robinson staff had been manually handling four dozen types of documents from shippers, carriers and government agencies needed to clear US Customs but much of this has now been automated. "Incoming documents are split up, classified and attached to their individual shipments," CH Robinson. "An AI agent extracts necessary data, while the system monitors for missing documents and requests them. "Automated invoices and information packets are sent out at the end. So far, time spent has been reduced by 23%, allowing the company's customs brokers to focus on critical validation and compliance steps."

Intra-Asia rates soften as congestion at major ports begins to ease

Intra-Asia rates are receding from their recent highs as bottlenecks in major Chinese and other Asian ports subside. On 15 October, Drewry's Intra-Asia Container Index dipped 3%, to an average of $1,453 per 40ft. Rates from Shanghai to key destinations, including Busan in South Korea, Ho Chi Minh City in Vietnam, and Jawaharlal Nehru Port in India, softened as vessel waiting times declined. The Golden Week holiday in China also gave ports an opportunity to clear cargo backlogs, helping improve schedule reliability. Linerlytica calculated that North Asia now accounted for 37% of global port congestion, which is still the highest among all regions, but down from 50% last month. Rates from Shanghai to Nhava Sheva fell 11%, to $3,370 per 40ft, while those to Busan declined 8% to $1,000 per 40ft. Shanghai-Singapore rates dropped 7% to $1,973 per 40ft. Port congestion eased during Week 41, with average vessel waiting times at Busan at 23 hours, from 26 hours a week earlier. At Jawaharlal Nehru Port, waiting times declined to 24 hours, from 42, and Singapore recorded a decrease to 34 hours, from 50. The improvement comes amid subdued demand across Greater China-to-North-east, South-east and South Asia trades, further contributing to the recent decline in spot rates. However, the deteriorating situation in the Middle East continued to support freight rates on the Shanghai-Jebel Ali route, which remained elevated, at $8,416 per 40ft. Elsewhere, rates across South-east and North-east Asia trade routes were largely stable, with increases recorded on those originating in Busan and Yokohama. Freight rates from Busan to Shanghai rose 4%, to $159 per 40ft, with Yokohama to Shanghai up 4%, to $120 per 40ft. Despite the recent pullback, the intra-Asia container freight market has remained resilient this year, the IACI surging 198% year on year. Elevated bunker costs and the US-Iran tension have continued to add to carriers' operating expenses, with Brent crude prices remaining above $100 per barrel since early September. Meanwhile, shipping lines continue to introduce new services amid the firm market. OOCL is set to expand its regional network tomorrow, with the launch of its China-Cambodia-Thailand (CCT4) service connecting Nansha and Shekou in South China with Sihanoukville in Cambodia and Songkhla in Thailand. And MSC yesterday announced Jasmine, a solo China-Singapore-Indonesia service for 4 November, when the 2,169 teu MSC Wind II arrives at Shanghai. The service will call Shanghai-Ningbo-Shekou-Singapore-Surabaya-Semarang-Singapore-Shanghai.