Asia-Europe rates still sinking, but a different picture on the transpacific
European trades saw spot rates decline for a fourth consecutive week, with carriers cancelling or cutting back plans for rate boosting, but for those operating on the transpacific, the situation was far rosier, as increases were recorded for both US coasts.
Spots may have held steady on Drewry's World Container Index's (WCI) Shanghai-Rotterdam leg this week, at $4,653 per 40ft, but for Shanghai-Genoa, there was yet another decline, 2% week on week, to finish at $5,506 per 40ft.
Linerlytica analysts noted: "Asia-Europe carriers failed to hold rates into August, with prices still trending downwards. Average spot rates in early August continue to vary widely and range from $4,000 to $5,000 per 40ft.
"Any hopes for a rate rebound will have to wait until mid-August, with CMA CGM and MSC leading the way with their announced new FAK rates, of $6,200 and $7,800 per 40ft, respectively, from 15 August."
That new FAK from CMA CGM marks a $900 reduction on the price announced in mid-July, while Maersk went further, confirming its Far East-Mediterranean peak season surcharge, set for 14 August, would no longer apply.
Vespucci Maritime CEO Lars Jensen said the Danish carrier's decision was indicative of the market having "past the apex of peak season", while sources told The Loadstar carriers holding rates would "count as a win".
Bad news then for carriers if today's Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI) - which records rates quoted for the forthcoming week and, as such, can indicate the behaviour of the following week's WCI (as it did last week) - proves accurate.
The index suggests that Shanghai-North Europe and Shanghai-Mediterranean rates will drop 2.1% (to $4,934 per 40ft) and 3.4% (to $5,730 per 40ft) week on week, respectively, contrasting with the WCI's forecast for the week ahead.
Drewry noted: "Three blank sailings were recorded this week, and the same number is scheduled for next week on the Asia-Europe tradelane. As carriers continue to manage available capacity, Drewry expects rates to remain stable next week."
On the transpacific trades, the picture could not be more different: Shanghai-US east coast and Shanghai-US west coast rates up 2.6% (to $9,290 per 40ft) and 4.1% (to $6,484 per 40ft), week on week, respectively, according to the SCFI.
It showed Shanghai-New York rates climbed 4%, to $7,893 per 40ft, and the Shanghai-Los Angeles leg an increase of 3%, to $5,894 per 40ft, with Drewry attributing this to carriers' successful implementation of general rate increases (GRIs).
Those GRIs, the index noted, "held firm into August", adding: "Meanwhile, port congestion across Central and South China continued to constrain capacity, providing further support to freight rates."
Mr Jensen said: "The weekly WCI spot rates only showed minor changes this week compared with last week. What should be noted is that last week the SCFI spot rate index staged a major increase of almost $700 per 40ft on the Asia-USWC trade.
"The WCI index only saw a $155 per 40ft increase this week after having seen a decline last week. This is an indication that the SCFI spike last week might indeed have been a phantom GRI."
Linerlytica analysts said the rate rally on the trade had caught them offguard, "given the SCFI and SCFIS' recent correction but transpacific cargo volumes remain firm into August while capacity out of China remains constrained due to port congestion".
Looking to capacity, the WCI noted that, with eight blankings scheduled for next week, the indication was for stable capacity, and, "as a result, Drewry expects the volatility in rates to reduce in the coming week".
