
'Severe supply imbalance' threat as record box ship deliveries loom
The global containership fleet is set to expand by almost 50% by 2030, with even record levels of vessel scrapping unlikely to prevent a severe supply imbalance.
In its latest report, Sea-Intelligence forecast the fleet will grow from almost 34m teu today to 40m teu by Q2 28, and 50m teu by the Q3 30.
The analyst expects average annual fleet growth of 10% between 2027 and 2030, based on existing orders, with further newbuilding contracts potentially increasing that figure.
Quarterly deliveries are forecast to average 1m teu over the period, peaking at 1.8m teu in the third quarter of 2028.
This compares with average quarterly deliveries of 560,000 teu between 2023 and 2026, highlighting the scale of capacity due to enter the market.
Sea-Intelligence said the current orderbook, covering vessels scheduled for delivery through March 2031, stood at 15.7m teu, equivalent to 46.4% of the existing fleet, while Xeneta's latest assessment puts it slightly lower, at 15.47m teu - a difference of around 230,000 teu.
Sea-Intelligence said the ordering surge had begun in the third quarter of 2024, with new contracts averaging 1.5m teu every quarter.
So even an unprecedented demolition programme would do little to offset the incoming capacity, according to Sea-Intelligence. In 2016, carriers scrapped a record 670,000 teu, equivalent to just 3.3% of the fleet, during the industry's previous overcapacity crisis.
Repeating that level of demolition every year between 2027 and 2030 would offset less than 17% of the scheduled deliveries, leaving annual fleet growth at 8.5%. Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, told The Loadstar only 600,000 teu had been demolished since 2019.
Xeneta estimates that just 3.4m teu of existing capacity is at least 21.8 years old, the average demolition age recorded between 2016 and 2019.
Mr Sand explained: "Containerships are built to last a life at sea, so they are mainly demolished for commercial and operational reasons rather than wear and tear."
He expects demolition to increase if a large-scale return to Red Sea transits released capacity currently absorbed by longer voyages.
However, the age and size of vessels available for demolition complicate the prospect of meaningful fleet renewal.
Jonathan Roach, analyst at Braemar, told The Loadstar there were 1,944 vessels aged 20 years or more, with 1,903 ships on order. He said: "On paper, the numbers look remarkably similar, but this is where the comparison ends. There is a major mismatch in vessel sizes."
Older vessels are concentrated in the smaller sub-panamax fleet, while newbuilding orders are weighted towards larger ships, he explained. This means demolition could remove substantial numbers of older vessels, but not compensating for an equivalent amount of incoming capacity.
Jan Tiedemann, VP liner strategy at Alphaliner, told The Loadstar he expected scrapping to increase in 2027 and 2028 without offsetting the newbuilding influx.
He identified several factors that could increase demand for vessel capacity, including longer trade routes, slow-steaming and rising consumption in emerging markets.
He also pointed to the replacement needs of larger vessels built between 2000 and 2010, many of which will approach the end of their commercial lives in the mid-2030s.