Leading air cargo verticals see demand levels diverge

E-commerce and AI data centre-related volumes have been fuelling air cargo demand growth over recent years, but the performance of the two verticals has increasingly diverged over recent months. Speaking at this week's EU Cross-Border E-Commerce Forum in Liege, Aevean head of consulting Maarten Wormer highlighted the rapid growth of demand for data centre-related air imports. Over the first seven months of the year, he said, data centre volumes into the US were up by 103% year on year and reached 107,000 tonnes in July - the equivalent to 1,000 freighter flights. Drilling further into the segment, Wormer said that over the seven-month period, US air imports of network equipment were up 130% year on year, there was a 37% increase in power infrastructure, computer components increased 86% and servers were up 181%. In contrast, e-commerce volumes from China to the European Union declined by 29% year on year in July following the introduction of a €3 charge for low-value package imports. The volume decline to France had started in March when volumes dropped by 30% as it introduced its own charge in anticipation of the EU levy, Wormer said. In July, e-commerce volumes into France had declined by 64%. Despite the decline in China-Europe e-commerce demand, Wormer said that the overall air cargo market had been growing this year. Aevean figures show that over the first seven months of 2026, air cargo volumes are up 5.8% year on year, primarily led by Asia Pacific to North America volumes, which have increased by 24% on 2025 levels. Meanwhile, volumes from Asia Pacific to Europe had increased by 4% year on year. Intra-Asia volumes had improved by 8% and there was also an 8% improvement from Asia Pacific to South America. The trade lane to record the largest fall in demand was Asia Pacific to the Middle East as a result of the ongoing US-Iran conflict.

Advance booking critical as hi-tech nabs peak airfreight capacity

In times of urgency it's often airfreight to the rescue, but during this peak season shippers may have to look elsewhere to move cargo from the Asia Pacific region to North America, elbowed aside by AI-related traffic. In its Asia Pacific Freight Report for August, Taiwan-based logistics provider Dimerco noted that airfreight capacity from several origins in the region to the US remained tight, with pricing on the rise. It highlighted Taiwan and South Korea as the most challenging markets to find lift but noted that other origins - notably Malaysia and Thailand - were also faced with capacity constraints., "Dynamic load factors on Asia-US lanes have reached about 90%, the report stated, adding that AI-related traffic was the main driver of demand. And the peak season is not likely to change the picture, warned DHL Global Forwarding's Fabio Weiss, SVP air freight for Asia Pacific. "We anticipate a more technology-driven peak season, rather than the traditional retail-led peaks of the past. Demand for AI hardware, semiconductors, server systems, and other hi-tech products should remain elevated, while industrial and advanced-manufacturing cargo will continue to compete for space on the same premium lanes," he said. Shippers of consumer products with lower margins will likely face challenges in securing airfreight capacity. Kenneth Leung, SVP of Dimerco, said: "Capacity of course becomes a concern, and a stronger possibility of rate increases, particularly if a shipper has to use an airfreight charter service." Mr Weiss added: "Because AI infrastructure components are often high-value, time-critical, and tied to fixed deployment schedules, they tend to compete strongly for premium capacity. Shippers in consumer electronics, automotive, telecoms, and industrial sectors are therefore reviewing which products genuinely need to fly. Less time-sensitive accessories, components, industrial parts, and planned replenishment cargo may move by ocean or sea-air." "For some shippers, a switch to ocean freight might work," Mr Leung added. But Mr Weiss stressed that these capacity constraints did not affect the entire tradelane between Asia Pacific and the US. "AI-related cargo is not creating a universal shortage of airfreight capacity, but it is placing structural capacity pressure on specific technology-focused lanes. This is particularly visible between Taiwan and the US, as well as from selected South-east Asia and intra-Asia origins," he explained. He added: "This should not be viewed simply as AI cargo crowding-out other industries. Rather, it is accelerating a more disciplined approach to modal choice, reserving airfreight for cargo where time, value, and continuity matter most." Rather than relying on one optimised route, shippers are designing supply chains around optionality by diversifying sourcing locations, using alternative gateways, spreading production across several countries, and positioning inventory closer to major end markets, he said. "Our customers are also planning shipments further in advance, building contingency capacity into critical periods, and combining air, ocean, and sea-air solutions to optimise cost and speed. "In today's dynamic world, resilience is not about finding one perfect route, but having several viable options and the data to make an informed choice to switch between them before a disruption becomes a bottleneck," he continued. According to him, the character of the peak season itself is also undergoing a transformation. "Rather than one broad rise and fall in volumes, we expect shorter, sharper periods of pressure around specific origins, project milestones, and product launches. I "n previous market observations we have seen demand arrive earlier, with customers booking in shorter windows or securing buffer capacity to manage uncertainty. With AI and semiconductor shipments replacing e-commerce as the primary capacity driver on some lanes, capacity may tighten periodically, particularly from Taiwan and selected South-east Asian gateways. "This peak season may be defined less by how high total volumes rise, and more by where, when, and how quickly technology demand concentrates. For shippers, early forecasting and advance bookings will be even more critical," he reflected.

Amazon's Miami runway disaster exposes fragile seams of air cargo's contract carrier model

Key takeaway: Five dead after a 21 Air-operated 767 freighter overruns MIA's runway, and the questions for the cargo supply chain are only beginning. A Boeing 767-300 freighter bearing Amazon Prime Air livery overran the runway at Miami International Airport on Sunday afternoon, smashing through perimeter fencing and striking multiple vehicles on the ground. Five people are confirmed dead and five more injured, according to the FAA and Miami-Dade County officials. The aircraft, operated by 21 Air as Flight ...