Atlas Air warns of a decade of widebody freighter shortages

Atlas Air Worldwide is expecting a shortage of widebody freighter capacity for the next ten years and beyond. Speaking to Air Cargo News at the recent Air Cargo Europe event, chief executive Michael Steen explained that widebody freighter capacity additions would struggle to keep pace with demand growth, given the need to retire older aircraft and the lack of new aircraft able to enter the market. Steen explained that there are currently around 630 widebody freighters in operation, but around 100 of those are older than 30 years and are therefore heading towards the typical retirement age. "What is important to also remember is that the older the aircraft gets, the lower the utilisation is going to be because you need to maintain them more frequently," Steen explained. "So, the global freighter fleet is now ageing and we are seeing a situation here that we haven't seen before, where aircraft are retiring faster than they are being replenished." Steen said that widebody freighter capacity is only expected to grow at 1% per year as production of the Boeing 777 freighter is due to end in 2027 and deliveries of the next generation of widebody freighters - the Boeing 777-8F and the Airbus A350F - are not due to start until 2028 and the second half of 2027 respectively, assuming there are no further delays to the production timeline. "This means you have at least one calendar year with zero new freighters," said Steen. Meanwhile, he pointed out that none of the three 777 conversion programmes have yet received certification from aviation authorities, and much of the feedstock is tied up in passenger operations as production of next-generation passenger jets continues to be delayed. According to IATA, the global backlog for new aircraft orders has reached a record 17,000 aircraft. On the demand side of the equation, cargo volumes are expected to grow at around 3.5%-5.5% per year in the long term. "When you look at all this and put it together, we are going to be capacity-constrained well towards the 2040s, and there is structurally no way around it from a capacity perspective," said Steen. "The only thing that could derail this is a complete collapse of the global economy." On the topic of future widebody freighter capacity, Steen was circumspect regarding Atlas' future plans. The company is the world's largest widebody freighter operator, with 15% of the global widebody fleet, when MD-11Fs aren't included, but it has yet to confirm its plans for the next generation of freighters. "We added eight widebody aircraft last year, we added two more 777 freighters this year, so the fleet is continuing to grow, and we will continue to capitalise on what is available in the marketplace over the next few years," said Steen. "But we are reviewing our long-term fleet strategy, and we will make a decision, likely this year, in terms of what we are going to do going forward." He pointed out that its fleet of widebody freighters was relatively young, which gives the company some flexibility. On the current market conditions, Steen said Atlas takes a long-term view and considers the market holistically. Atlas has capitalised on growing e-commerce demand with direct agreements with several of the e-commerce platforms. However, this sector faces increased scrutiny, not only with duties now being applied in the US and other regulators looking to take similar steps, but also because shipments to the US now need to pass through the customs process, which increases both complexity and lead times. Steen says there was a big demand dip when "liberation day" happened, with industry-wide volumes on the transpacific dropping by as much as 40%. "But globally, airfreight continued to grow and demand continued to grow. The e-commerce players in China opened up new markets and re-routed their controlled capacity," said Steen. "We re-routed those aircraft to operate into Mexico and various locations in South America and Europe where these e-commerce platforms continue to expand." As a result, Steen said the impact of US tariffs and the removal of de minimis for China and Hong Kong had been "relatively muted", although he added that the company did feel some of the impact. Steen explained that Atlas is able to flex its assets and has a global reach, with more than 300 destinations in more than 80 countries, meaning it can more easily switch capacity to match demand. He pointed out that combination carriers need to operate through hub and spoke systems, belly capacity is tied into passenger networks and integrators also need to operate through hubs. "Our model is completely flexible because we literally just move the aircraft. We have outsourced all the handling, we have outsourced all the maintenance, so we don't have that fixed infrastructure that holds you back." Also, much of Atlas' business is on a long-term basis, which has also protected the company. Meanwhile, it also has a range of customer types. "If you look at our business, we are highly diversified across the entire supply chain," said Steen. "We serve several airlines with ACMI capacity, we have dedicated agreements with several of the freight forwarders, we have dedicated agreements with the ocean shipping companies, we operate for all the express carriers, and we lease aircraft directly to manufacturers and e-commerce platforms as well."

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Bridges Air Cargo to be first E190 freighter operator

Bridges Air Cargo has been announced as the first operator of Embraer's E190F converted aircraft. The aircraft, which is being marketed as the E-Freighter, is owned by US lessor Regional One and is due to start operations for Bridges Air Cargo in the third quarter of the year. Bridges Air Cargo offers logistics solutions for the express and courier industry. Its customers include FedEx, DHL and UPS. Guy Bridges, managing director of Bridges Air Cargo, said: "It's fitting that Bridges becomes the launch customer for the E-Freighter as we celebrate 35 years of operations and over a billion kilograms moved for the express market. "The aircraft's size fills a unique and underserved space in the cargo segment. It strengthens our operational capability and paves the way for the development of promising new routes. We are excited to partner with Embraer and Regional One on what we see as a pivotal advancement for regional air cargo." The E-Jet freighter programme has been created in response to e-commerce growth and increased demand for regional cargo capacity, especially to smaller markets. If combining capacity under the floor and maindeck, the maximum structural payload is 13.5 tonnes for the E190F and 14.3 tonnes for the E195F, meaning it sits between the larger turboprops, which can carry around 10 tonnes, and the smaller narrowbody freighters with a capacity of around 20 tonnes. Regional One president Hank Gibson added: "Together with Embraer and our valued partners, we are setting a new benchmark for regional cargo transport - transforming one of the world's most efficient regional jets into the next-generation freighter. "Today, we're delighted to welcome Bridges Air Cargo as our newest partner in this transformative journey, reinforcing our shared vision for the future of regional logistics." Embraer said the jet was developed to fill a gap in the air cargo market and to replace older, less efficient models. "E-Jets converted to freighters will have over 40% more volume capacity, three times the range of large cargo turboprops, and up to 30% lower operating costs than larger narrowbodies," the company said. Earlier this year, Embraer confirmed its E190 converted freighter has been fully certified by the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) after the agency published the type certificate document late last year. The US Federal Aviation Administration and the National Civil Aviation Agency of Brazil have also certified the freighter.